Shenwan Hongyuan Securities·2026-01-13 09:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating due to expected price increases driven by supply constraints and high demand from cold weather [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that as of January 9, 2026, the spot prices for thermal coal at Qinhuangdao port have increased, with Q4500, Q5000, and Q5500 grades priced at 526, 613, and 699 CNY/ton respectively, reflecting increases of 21, 20, and 17 CNY/ton week-on-week [1]. - Supply is expected to contract due to ongoing safety inspections and regulatory measures, while demand remains robust due to cold weather, supporting higher thermal coal prices [1]. - The report also notes that the average daily consumption of coal has improved, with a daily average of 164.79 million tons being shipped out from the Bohai Rim ports, a 0.69% increase week-on-week [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - A national safety production meeting was held on January 6, emphasizing the need for stringent safety measures in mining operations [7]. - A new coal transportation route from Longkou to Guangzhou was inaugurated, enhancing coal distribution efficiency [7]. 2. Price Movements - Domestic thermal coal prices have seen a week-on-week increase, with specific grades reporting price hikes [8]. - International thermal coal prices have shown stability with slight increases in certain markets, such as Indonesia [9]. 3. Inventory and Supply - Bohai Rim port coal inventory decreased to 26.727 million tons, a 2.91% drop week-on-week, indicating tighter supply conditions [20]. - The average daily coal inflow to the Bohai Rim ports increased by 4.28% week-on-week, while outflow also saw a slight increase [20]. 4. Shipping Costs - Domestic coastal shipping costs have decreased slightly, with average freight rates reported at 31.90 CNY/ton, a 1.69% decline week-on-week [26]. - International shipping rates have shown mixed trends, with some routes experiencing price increases while others have decreased [26]. 5. Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalizations, and earnings projections [30].