国内高频指标跟踪（2026年第2期）：开年经济温和回暖

Economic Overview - The economy is showing moderate recovery at the beginning of the year, supported by resilient domestic demand and improvements in external demand and production[1] - High-frequency data indicates that automotive consumption is boosted by trade-in subsidies, while service consumption has weakened marginally post-New Year[3] Investment Insights - Special bond issuance has been advanced, potentially stabilizing infrastructure investment in Q1, although the real estate sector remains weak[3] - In the first two weeks of January, special bonds worth CNY 110.2 billion were issued, compared to zero in the same period last year, indicating a shift in issuance pace[7] Trade and Production - External trade conditions are improving, with both export volume and price rising; port operation data shows a year-on-year increase in most metrics[7] - Production is generally recovering, with operating rates in the steel, petrochemical, and chlor-alkali sectors rising[7] Pricing Trends - Consumer prices are weak, with the iCPI index decreasing by 0.53% month-on-month; however, industrial prices are mostly rising, particularly in the non-ferrous metals and lithium carbonate sectors[7] - The price of lithium carbonate has surged by 74.5% year-on-year due to tight supply and demand from emerging industries[10] Liquidity and Interest Rates - Funding rates have slightly increased, with R007 rising by 6.3 basis points and DR007 by 4.4 basis points compared to the previous week[8] - The 10-year government bond yield increased by 3.1 basis points to 1.88%, while the one-year yield decreased by 4.9 basis points to 1.28%[8] Risks - There are uncertainties regarding trade conditions and the potential for domestic demand recovery to fall short of expectations[12]