看股做债专题二：固收专题

Report Information - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: January 13, 2026 - Analyst: Liang Weichao [2] - Research Assistant: Wang Yi [2] Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The larger the increase in the spring stock market rally, the higher the probability of pressure on the bond market. When the Shanghai Composite Index rises more than 20% in spring, the 10 - year Treasury bonds are likely to fall during the same period. In the more common 10% - 20% medium - increase range, the bond market is more likely to fluctuate or stage a phased recovery [2]. - A mid - stage acceleration in the spring stock market rally is more likely to suppress the bond market than a bottom - bouncing recovery. When the rally occurs in the mid - stage acceleration of the stock market, it's more likely to be interpreted as a signal of fundamental or policy orientation changes, and inflation and nominal growth expectations enter the core of pricing, putting pressure on the bond market [3]. - A spring rally led by cyclical sectors has a greater impact on the bond market than an independent rally in technology and consumer sectors. When cyclical and stable sectors resonate with growth sectors, the re - pricing of nominal growth and credit expansion is significantly strengthened, and the bond market is under greater pressure [3]. - In 2026, the spring stock market rally is likely to be a combination of "mid - stage acceleration, easing expectations, and growth - led", which will mainly cause short - term disturbances to the bond market rather than being a long - term negative factor. Before the rally spreads to cyclical and stable sectors and forms a resonance, interest rates are more likely to remain volatile at a high level, and the first quarter may be a phased high point [4]. Summary by Directory 1. The Impact of Past Spring Stock Market Rallies on the Bond Market Varies by Increase - 1.1 "Spring Rally" Offers Good Opportunities, Risk Preference Tilts towards the Stock Market: The spring rally in the A - share market is a high - probability and high - return phased market window. From 2002 to 2026, the probability of a spring rally is over 90%. The average maximum increase in the main rising phase of the spring rally is about 14%, and the average increase remains at about 12% in the past 15 years. In some years, such as 2007, 2009, 2015 and 2019, the increase exceeded 30% [10]. - 1.2 Past Spring Stock Market Rallies Tend to Pressure the Bond Market, with a High Probability of Bond Market Recovery in the Medium - Increase Range: When the Shanghai Composite Index rises more than 20% during the "spring rally", the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate is likely to rise significantly. When the increase is less than 20%, the bond market shows different performances, including simultaneous rises in stocks and bonds, and stocks rising while bonds falling. In the medium - increase range, the bond market may either rise or fall, but there is a high probability of recovery even if it falls [13]. 2. Bond Market Performance Varies Depending on the "Stage of the Larger Stock Market Rally" during the Spring Stock Market Rally - 2.1 In the Case of a Low - Level Rebound in the Spring Stock Market Rally, Loose Liquidity May Drive Stocks and Bonds to Rise Together: When the spring rally starts in the low - level repair stage (i.e., a rebound after an oversold), stocks and bonds often move in the same direction, and the bond market is insensitive to the rise of the stock market. In the past, when the stock market rebounded from a low level in spring and the stage increase did not exceed 20%, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield mostly remained stable or declined during the spring rally. The larger the decline in the Shanghai Composite Index in the two months before the spring rally, the greater the possible decline in interest rates during the spring rally. For example, in 2024, the stock market and the bond market both rose during the spring rally [18][22]. - 2.2 In the Case of a Mid - Stage Acceleration in the Spring Stock Market Rally, the Bond Market Is Likely to Be Pressured First and Then Ease: When the spring rally occurs in the acceleration stage of the stock market's upward trend, the bond market may face pressure in the short term but is likely to ease later. In this context, the continued rise of the stock market is more likely to be interpreted as a signal of "expected fundamental improvement or policy orientation change", which puts pressure on the bond market [23]. 3. The Impact of Spring Stock Market Rallies Led by Different Styles on the Bond Market Varies - 3.1 Spring Stock Market Rallies Led Solely by Technology, Consumption, or Finance Have Limited Suppression on the Bond Market: When the spring rally is led by the growth (technology) sector, the rise of the stock market mainly reflects the repair of risk preference and the anticipation of the future development of emerging industries, and has little impact on the bond market. For example, in 2010, 2014, 2024 and 2025, the average change in the 10 - year Treasury bond yield during the spring rally was only - 1.5bp. When the consumer sector leads the rally, the impact on the bond market is also positive. When the financial sector leads the rally, there is a high probability of driving both stocks and bonds up [31]. - 3.2 Spring Stock Market Rallies with Resonance of Cyclical and Stable Styles Shake Expectations and Impact the Bond Market: When the "growth, stable and cyclical" sectors resonate in the spring rally, the impact on the bond market is more significant. The resonance of these sectors strengthens the market's pricing of the return of nominal growth, credit expansion and policy effects, and puts upward pressure on the risk - free interest rate. For example, in 2007, 2009 and 2015, the bond market was significantly pressured [35]. 4. How to "Invest in Bonds Based on the Stock Market" in the 2026 Spring Stock Market Rally? - In 2026, the spring stock market rally is likely to be a risk - preference repair - type increase, focusing on growth themes. It will mainly cause short - term disturbances to the bond market rather than being a long - term negative factor. After the spring rally, the downward pressure on interest rates may gradually ease. Before the rally spreads to cyclical and stable sectors and forms a resonance, interest rates are more likely to remain volatile at a high level, and the first quarter may be a phased high point [40][44].