震荡整理：热卷日报-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the bottom. Although the weekly apparent consumption has declined slightly, it remains strong year-on-year. A slight decline in demand during the off-season is normal. The warming of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The high total inventory exerts some pressure. The hot-rolled coil futures have briefly fallen below the 5-day moving average, and attention should be paid to the support near the 10-day and 20-day moving averages. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach and consider buying on dips. However, note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Price: On Tuesday, the open interest of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract increased by 12,752 lots, and the trading volume was 404,061 lots, showing a decline compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,296 yuan, and the high was 3,323 yuan. It oscillated and consolidated with increased open interest during the day. From the perspective of the daily moving average, it briefly fell below the 5-day moving average but remained above the 10-day and 20-day moving averages, closing at 3,303 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton or 0.09% [1]. - Spot Price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,290 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was -13 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - Supply Side: As of January 8, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 10,000 tons to 3.0551 million tons compared to the previous week. It was up 16,200 tons year-on-year, and the output has been rising for three consecutive weeks. This is mainly due to the improvement in steel mill profitability, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates by some steel mills, and the increased resumption of production after the end of the annual maintenance of steel mills. The follow-up supply increase needs to be observed [4]. - Demand Side: As of January 8, the weekly apparent consumption decreased by 24,300 tons to 3.0834 million tons compared to the previous week. Although the apparent consumption declined slightly, it was up 72,500 tons year-on-year, indicating that demand still has resilience [4]. - Inventory Side: As of January 8, the total inventory decreased by 28,300 tons to 3.6813 million tons compared to the previous week (social inventory increased by 21,700 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 50,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, but the decline rate narrowed, and the total inventory was at a near 5-year high. Inventory still exerts pressure on prices [4]. - Policy Side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed an active fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [4]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish Factors: Decrease in supply-side output, expectation of the start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore as a furnace charge [5]. - Bearish Factors: The resumption of production of steel mills in January exceeded expectations, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [5].