铁矿日报：发运逐步减量，到港高位逐步往下游转移-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market shows short - term volatility. The supply side has a gradual decrease in new shipments, the demand side has a slight recovery, and although port inventories are still increasing, they are gradually being transferred to downstream steel mills. With the back structure + positive basis of futures contracts, there is strong support below [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - The main iron ore futures contract continued to fluctuate, closing at 819.5 yuan/ton, down - 3 yuan/ton or - 0.36% from the previous trading day's closing price, with a trading volume of 312,000 lots, an open interest of 653,000 lots, and a settled capital of 11.778 billion yuan. The spot and swap prices slightly declined. The basis narrowed slightly, and the iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis, with limited downside space and short - term continuation of the shock [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, and the decrease in Brazil was more obvious. The current arrivals increased month - on - month. The supply side has expected disturbances. On the demand side, blast furnace inspections and restarts both occurred, molten iron production increased significantly month - on - month, the steel mill profitability rate weakened slightly, daily consumption increased, and restocking demand increased, but the inventory accumulation speed of steel mills was slow. Port inventories continued to accumulate significantly, and the inventory pressure was still building up. The steel mill inventory increased to a certain extent but was still significantly lower than the historical average [2] Macro - level Analysis - The criminal investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell reveals the core dilemma of global macro - policies: the risk of stagflation with slow growth and sticky inflation. The Fed's interest rate decision has become the focus of political games, and its policy space is narrowing and independence is being eroded. This provides a macro - background for the recent strong appreciation of the RMB against the "7" mark, which is driven by both external "push" and internal "pull" factors [3]