油粕日报：偏强震荡-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the near - term, while the far - month contracts may be weak due to the bearish effect of the USDA report. If the South American harvest progresses well, there is a possibility of further decline [1]. - The palm oil market may see a seasonal inventory decline from January to February, with the fundamentals gradually improving. It is recommended to buy on dips [3]. - The impact of the USDA report on the soybean oil sector is expected to be small, and attention should be paid to whether the visit of the Canadian Prime Minister can open the window for Canadian rapeseed imports [3]. Summary by Related Content Soybean Meal - The 2025/26 global soybean outlook includes increased production, higher crush volume, reduced exports, and increased ending stocks. Global soybean production is raised by 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million tons, with increased production in Brazil and the US but a decline in China. Brazil's soybean production is raised by 3 million tons to 178 million tons [1]. - The soybean auction volume is nearly 1.14 million tons, with high trading volume and some premiums, indicating a supply gap and strong short - term demand. Near - month soybean meal is expected to be strong and volatile, while far - month contracts may be weak [1]. Oils - In December, India's palm oil imports decreased to 507,204 tons from 632,341 tons in November, while sunflower oil imports increased to 349,929 tons from 142,953 tons, and soybean oil imports increased to 505,112 tons from 370,661 tons. Total vegetable oil imports in December were 1.38 million tons, higher than 1.18 million tons in November [2]. - Indonesia's "B50" biodiesel mandatory blending policy implementation depends on crude oil and crude palm oil prices [2]. - In January, the US 2025/2026 soybean oil production is expected to be 29.94 billion pounds, a month - on - month decrease of 210 million pounds; total supply is expected to be 32.052 billion pounds, a decrease of 224 million pounds; total consumption is expected to be 30.3 billion pounds, a decrease of 250 million pounds; and ending stocks are expected to be 1.752 billion pounds, an increase of 26 million pounds [3]. - The Malaysian palm oil monthly report mainly summarizes the December bearish factors. The production and exports in the first 10 days of this month show a situation of reduced supply and increased demand, and the inventory is expected to decline seasonally from January to February [3].