瑞达期货尿素产业日报-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in urea production is relatively high, but the agricultural demand is in the traditional off - season with lukewarm overall trading atmosphere. The downstream is resistant to high - price goods and mostly adopts a just - in - time procurement strategy. The industrial sector maintains rigid demand procurement. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates slightly, and the de - stocking amplitude is limited. The short - term de - stocking amplitude of urea enterprises is expected to be limited. The UR2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1750 - 1800 in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1774 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 25 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 230,249 lots, down 6,626 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 17,040. The exchange warehouse receipts are 13,355 sheets, up 155 sheets [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, and Anhui are 1740 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Jiangsu and Shandong are 1730 - 1740 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is - 53 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan. FOB Baltic is 367.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; FOB China main port is 402.5 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Industry Situation - The port inventory is 140,000 tons, down 32,000 tons; the enterprise inventory is 1.0222 million tons, up 3,000 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 2.93%. The daily urea output is 195,900 tons, up 1,700 tons. The urea export volume is 600,000 tons, down 600,000 tons. The monthly urea output is 6,000,330 tons, up 129,060 tons [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 37.17%, up 3.28%. The melamine operating rate is 54.35%, up 6.7%. The weekly profit of compound fertilizer in China is 244 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 152 yuan/ton, down 106 yuan. The monthly output of compound fertilizer is 4.3825 million tons, up 753,800 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 28,300 tons, down 1,900 tons [2] 3.5 Industry News - As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0222 million tons, up 0.29% week - on - week. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises fluctuates slightly this period, with local inventory rising or falling differently. As of January 8, the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports is 140,000 tons, down 18.60% week - on - week. The departure volume of port goods increases this week, and some ports are loading and leaving. Due to the slow pace of factory goods gathering at ports and quota restrictions, most ports maintain a low level. As of January 8, the output of Chinese urea production enterprises is 1.3716 million tons, up 0.92% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate is 83.22%, up 2.93% [2] 3.6 Suggested Attention - Pay attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2]