瑞达期货国债期货日报-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The bond market is gradually digesting potential negatives, but the suppression from the equity market trend and fundamental recovery still exists. Since the beginning of the year, the commodity and equity markets have performed strongly, increasing short - term profit - taking demand, and the upward rhythm may slow down. The liquidity pressure in the bond market is expected to ease. Fundamentally, the manufacturing PMI and CPI in December increased year - on - year, and the economic data for that month is likely to improve marginally, reducing the need for further loose monetary policies in the short term. The issuance scale of government bonds in the first quarter is expected to be roughly the same as that in the same period of 2025, and the specific proportion of ultra - long bond supply remains to be confirmed, but the market allocation power is still weak, and the supply - demand contradiction of ultra - long bonds still exists. With multiple factors at play, interest rates are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Disk - T主力收盘价107.850，涨幅0.06%，成交量54073，环比减少10308；TF主力收盘价105.625，涨幅0.04%，成交量44516，环比减少20415；TS主力收盘价102.330，涨幅0%，成交量31235，环比减少6059；TL主力收盘价111.350，涨幅0.28%，成交量89373，环比减少9823 [2] 3.2 Futures Spreads - TL2603 - 2606价差 - 0.13，环比减少0.03；T2603 - 2606价差0.07，环比减少0.02；TF2603 - 2606价差0.02，环比增加0.02；TS2603 - 2606价差 - 0.03，环比增加0.01；T03 - TL03价差 - 3.50，环比减少0.14；TF03 - T03价差 - 2.22，环比持平；TS03 - T03价差 - 5.52，环比减少0.02；TS03 - TF03价差 - 3.30，环比减少0.01 [2] 3.3 Futures Positions - T主力持仓量232379，增加1748；T前20名多头208364，增加1594；T前20名空头212070，增加1561；T前20名净空仓2219，增加2574；TF主力持仓量138720，减少139；TF前20名多头130419，增加256；TF前20名空头137683，增加320；TF前20名净空仓7264，增加64；TS主力持仓量72809，增加2021；TS前20名多头60993，增加2334；TS前20名空头67031，增加1692；TS前20名净空仓6038，减少642；TL主力持仓量145256，减少1663；TL前20名多头140484，减少1181；TL前20名空头146100，减少2019；TL前20名净空仓5616，减少838 [2] 3.4 Top Two CTD (Clean Price) - 250018.IB(6y)为100.2403，涨幅0.0689；220025.IB(6y)为99.0955，涨幅0.0167；230014.IB(4y)为104.5805，涨幅0.0659；240020.IB(4y)为100.8844，涨幅0.0106；250017.IB(2y)为100.0306，跌幅0.0082；250024.IB(2y)为99.8563，涨幅0.0028；210005.IB(17y)为125.7529，涨幅0.6528；210014.IB(18y)为122.5726，涨幅0.3075 [2] 3.5 Active Treasury Bonds - 1y收益率1.2350，下降3.50bp；3y收益率1.4575，持平；5y收益率1.6250，下降1.00bp；7y收益率1.7400，下降0.50bp；10y收益率1.8515，下降3.45bp [2] 3.6 Short - term Interest Rates - 银质押隔夜利率1.3732，下降0.68bp；Shibor隔夜利率1.3910，上升7.50bp；银质押7天利率1.5474，上升9.74bp；Shibor7天利率1.5230，上升5.00bp；银质押14天利率1.6000，上升10.00bp；Shibor14天利率1.5340，上升4.50bp [2] 3.7 LPR Interest Rates - 1y为3.00，持平；5y为3.5，持平 [2] 3.8 Open Market Operations - 发行规模3586亿，到期规模162亿，利率1.4%，期限7天 [2] 3.9 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies to promote domestic demand through fiscal and financial coordination, including optimizing loan interest subsidy policies for service business entities and personal consumption loans, implementing interest subsidy policies for small and medium - sized enterprises, establishing a special guarantee plan for private investment, and setting up a risk - sharing mechanism for private enterprise bonds, and optimizing the fiscal interest subsidy policy for equipment renewal loans. The meeting also studied the work of providing basic public services at the place of permanent residence. - Four departments including the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued the "Work Measures for Strengthening the Layout Planning and Investment Guidance of Government - invested Funds", requiring funds to support major strategies, key areas, and weak links where the market has difficulty in effectively allocating resources, promoting in - depth integration of technological innovation and industrial innovation, and not investing in restricted, eliminated, and industries prohibited by policies. - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding the renovation of the Federal Reserve headquarters. Powell responded that this was unprecedented and should be viewed in the context of the continuous threat from the Trump administration to the Federal Reserve, aiming to further pressure him on the issue of interest rate cuts. Trump said he "knew nothing" about Powell's investigation. In view of this investigation, two Republican senators announced that they would vote against any Fed nominee nominated by Trump, including the new Fed chairman. The investigation has raised serious concerns about the Fed's independence, and the "sell - off of the US" trade has resurfaced [2] 3.10 Key Points to Watch - 1/15 17:00 The European Central Bank will release its economic bulletin - 1/15 03:00 The Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book on economic conditions [3]