瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The weekly average operating rate of domestic methanol - to - olefins increased slightly after the load reduction of multiple MTO enterprises in East China was offset by the load increase of inland enterprises. With the implementation of the East China MTO maintenance plan in the later stage, there is an expectation of load reduction in the short - term MTO industry. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2210 - 2300 in the short term. The inventory of inland enterprises continued to accumulate. The methanol port inventory continued to accumulate last week, mainly in Zhejiang. The South China port inventory decreased slightly. There is an expectation of import reduction in January, and the port methanol inventory may fall from a high level [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract was 2263 yuan/ton, with no change; the 5 - 9 spread was - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.8034 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest was 830030 lots, a decrease of 33561 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders was - 165175 lots. The number of warehouse receipts was 7655, with no change [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2250 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia was 1852.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest was 397.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract was - 13 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan/ton. The CFR price at the main Chinese port was 266 US dollars/ton, with no change; the CFR price in Southeast Asia was 322 US dollars/ton, with no change. The FOB price in Rotterdam was 260 euros/ton, an increase of 1 euro/ton. The price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia was - 56 US dollars/ton, with no change [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas was 3.35 US dollars/million British thermal units, an increase of 0.21 US dollars [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports was 112.33 tons, an increase of 7.62 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 41.39 tons, a decrease of 1.64 tons. The methanol import profit was - 12.95 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton. The monthly import volume was 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises was 447700 tons, an increase of 25100 tons. The methanol enterprise operating rate was 91.42%, an increase of 1.11% [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The formaldehyde operating rate was 34.07%, a decrease of 4.17%; the dimethyl ether operating rate was 2.96%, a decrease of 0.64%; the acetic acid operating rate was 76.99%, a decrease of 3.31%; the MTBE operating rate was 67.57%, a decrease of 0.44%; the olefin operating rate was 88.06%, an increase of 0.6%. The methanol - to - olefin disk profit was - 1044 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol was 19.87%, a decrease of 0.56%; the 40 - day historical volatility was 18.02%, a decrease of 0.81%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 25.14%, an increase of 1.46%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 25.14%, an increase of 1.44% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - As of January 7, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 44.77 tons, an increase of 2.51 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 5.94%; the orders to be delivered of sample enterprises were 23.75 tons, an increase of 2.95 tons compared with the previous period, a year - on - year increase of 14.16%. As of January 7, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 153.72 tons, an increase of 4.08 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in East China increased by 5.72 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 1.64 tons. The methanol port inventory continued to accumulate this week, mainly in Zhejiang. Recently, the loss of production capacity due to maintenance and production reduction of domestic methanol is more than the output of restored production capacity, and the overall output has decreased [3].