点石成金：锡：高位加速，警惕价量

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of tin has reached a high level and is accelerating, with a potential risk of reaching the price peak. In 2026, the supply of tin concentrate is expected to shift from tight to loose, and the supply growth rate may exceed the demand growth rate, leading to a possible formation of the top trading range for tin prices this year [2][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Long - term Tin Consumption Structure Relying on High - demand Growth in Electronic Solder - The price of Shanghai tin has reached the range of 300,000 - 350,000 yuan, showing a high - price characteristic. The rapid rise in tin and silver prices has put negative pressure on solder production enterprises. In 2025, the proportion of tin used in global electronic solder was 34%, photovoltaic solder 12%, and industrial solder 7%. In other consumption areas, tin chemicals accounted for 16%, tinplate 11%, lead - acid batteries 8%, copper - tin alloys 5%, and others 7% [2]. - The market is optimistic about the high - growth potential of tin in the intelligent computing chip field based on the global semiconductor sales cycle and the demand for higher - density integrated circuits related to the growth of new - energy vehicle penetration. In the next five years, with the expected average annual compound growth rate of global photovoltaic installations dropping to 5%, the consumption of tin in integrated circuits or POB boards is the most promising incremental area. The global tin consumption structure will change, with more consumption concentrated in the electronic solder field, and the global tin consumption growth rate may reach an average annual compound growth rate similar to that of copper, about 2%, compared with 0.25% from 2010 - 2025 and 1.1% from 2020 - 2025 [3]. - The US Consumer Electronics Show confirmed the technological development trends of AI computing power, robots, unmanned driving, and smart home. In November 2025, global semiconductor sales reached $75.3 billion, a year - on - year increase of 29.8% and a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. The global chip market is expected to continue to grow significantly in 2026, with annual sales reaching nearly $1 trillion. The semiconductor boom cycle may continue until the first half or the third quarter of 2026, supporting the growth rate of tin consumption [3]. 3.2 High Tin Prices Keep Consumption at a Necessary Level, and the Weakening of Demand Will Be More Obvious - The high - level acceleration of the tin market is driven by capital allocation, directly realizing the long - term incremental expectation of tin consumption. However, in terms of futures prices, the market overestimates the tin consumption growth rate brought by the high - growth of the intelligent computing semiconductor field and underestimates the decline in tin demand in traditional fields. Since December, the high price has increasingly suppressed domestic tin - related demand. In mid - January, after the delivery of the 2601 contract, the seasonal off - season dominates consumption. Traditional consumption areas have weak orders, the photovoltaic industry is average, and the component production schedule in December has shrunk. It is expected that the production schedule in January may still decline by 12.54% month - on - month. The news of canceling the export tax rebate for photovoltaic products on April 1 may boost the production and sales of related products in the first quarter, but its impact on tin consumption is short - term and difficult to form a continuous incremental expectation [4]. - On the spot side, the tin price has risen rapidly, and the third - party spot quotes mainly follow the increase, with large daily real - time premium and discount fluctuations, which only have certain reference significance. Under the strong price - volume trend, some necessary buyers are still setting prices. Last week, the spot and futures prices showed certain resilience at the 350,000 - yuan level. The social inventories of SMM and Steel Union decreased by 1,042 and 1,233 tons respectively to 7,478 and 9,309 tons. Currently, the domestic social inventory and LME inventory are both higher than the same period last year, and the total inventory of the two markets is close to 13,000 tons, significantly higher than the 6,500 - ton level at the price peak in March 2022. It is expected that domestic consumption will gradually weaken in the second half of January, and downstream enterprises may take holidays in advance in February [5]. 3.3 Amplifying Geopolitical Disturbances, and the Supply Situation Will Gradually Change in the First Half of the Year - The rise in tin prices since November has continuously amplified geopolitical disturbances. In fact, the security situation in eastern Congo (Kinshasa) has not affected the normal production of the main mine Alphamin. The mining transportation affected by the closure of the neighboring border has been quickly restored, and Nigeria has not finally banned illegal mining production in some provinces. In South America, the situation in Venezuela has attracted the rapid attention of capital to the game of superior mining resources. In fact, from January to October last year, the proportion of tin concentrate exported from Venezuela to China was 2%, with a limited overall share. The mining production conditions in Bolivia are basically stable, and it currently has the largest share of tin concentrate exports to China in South America, at 5.2%. The impact of the South American situation premium on tin ore supply is relatively weak, mainly fermenting at the capital level [6]. - From the perspective of the balance sheet expectation, the supply pressure in the tin ore market was more intense in 2025, and Myanmar's Wa State, Indonesia, and Africa are expected to contribute increments in 2026. The ITA's global tin concentrate increment expectation in 2026 is 18,000 tons, which is a conservative prediction with a high probability of realization. Considering that the resumption of production in Wa State needs to limit the export flow from the aspects of physical tax and inventory reconstruction, the global market's available and tradable supply of tin concentrate is expected to increase by 20,000 tons, and the tin ore production increase is expected to be 23,000 - 25,000 tons, with a growth rate of at least 6%, exceeding the demand growth rate. In the first quarter, the tin market still needs to pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar's Wa State, the rectification of the Indonesian tin industry, and the geopolitical situation in eastern Congo (Kinshasa). In the second quarter and the second half of the year, the incremental supply at the mine end is expected to be gradually realized, and the change in domestic processing fees will be an important signal [7]. - In the short term, it is expected that the metal tonnage of tin concentrate exported from Myanmar to China in December will continue to increase to 1,500 - 1,800 tons. Although it is usually the seasonal off - season for Indonesian tin ingot exports under the influence of the approval policy at the beginning of the year, the export volume in December last year was still guaranteed to a certain extent. From the perspective of domestic smelter production schedules, Steel Union data shows that the domestic refined tin production in December was 15,895 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.61%, and the cumulative refined tin output for the whole year was 174,400 tons, a cumulative decrease of 1.65%. It is currently expected that the production schedule in January will remain stable at 14,000 tons. Due to the positive increase in the non - ferrous metal sector driven by domestic precious metals and the profit from importing tin ingots in the domestic spot and even three - month futures, it is expected that the weak consumption impact under the situation of both supply and demand being weak before the Chinese Spring Festival will be greater, and the domestic social inventory should continue to be tracked and observed [7]. 3.4 Be Vigilant about High - level Price - Volume Fluctuations - In terms of supply and demand, 2026 is more likely to be a year when the supply of tin concentrate changes from tight to loose. The supply change in the second quarter may gradually drive the re - balance of the tin market. Even if the demand growth rate of semiconductor solder is strong and can fundamentally guarantee the long - term average annual consumption growth rate of tin, the supply growth rate of tin ore in 2026 is very likely to exceed the demand growth rate, and the excess may be relatively large. Therefore, the sharp rise in tin prices during the New Year period (including the Lunar New Year) may form the top trading range for tin prices in 2026 [7]. - Currently, the price and volume of Shanghai tin weighted are close to the record levels since its listing. The VIX of Shanghai tin in the options market continued to hit a new high on Monday, and the price performance deviates from the off - season supply - demand environment. Under the strong upward trend, the risk of short - selling is high. It is recommended to continue to pay attention to short - term trading of selling out - of - the - money call options. If the options are finally exercised, the main strategy should be to roll over to far - month contracts. In terms of the price expectation under the capital - driven rise, LME tin is expected to hit the record high of $48,000 - $50,000, corresponding to the Shanghai tin main contract at 380,000 - 396,000 yuan [8].