流动性和机构行为周度观察：存单利率或有上行压力，可关注调整后的配置价值-20260113

1. Report Title and Period - The report is titled "Liquidity and Institutional Behavior Weekly Observation: CD Rates May Face Upward Pressure, Pay Attention to Allocation Value after Adjustment" and covers the period from January 5th to January 18th, 2026 [1][2]. 2. Core View - In the short - term, the impact of capital frozen by new share subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange on the capital market should be noted from January 12th to 16th, 2026. In the medium - term, cash withdrawals by residents before the Spring Festival in mid - January will affect market liquidity, and the pressure of "deposit migration" in banks also needs further observation. The CD rates are expected to face upward pressure in the first quarter, and it is recommended to pay attention to the allocation value of CDs after adjustment [7][8]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Capital Market - Central Bank Operations: From January 5th - 9th, 2026, the central bank's short - term reverse repurchase had a net withdrawal of 122.14 billion yuan, and the 3M repurchase was renewed at the same amount of 110 billion yuan. From January 12th - 16th, 7 - day reverse repurchases worth 13.87 billion yuan and 6M repurchases worth 60 billion yuan will expire [6]. - Funding Rates: From January 5th - 9th, 2026, the average values of DR001 and R001 were 1.27% and 1.34% respectively, down 0.4 and 5.3 basis points compared to December 29th - 31st, 2025. The average values of DR007 and R007 were 1.45% and 1.51% respectively, down 30.0 and 54.1 basis points [7]. - Government Bond Net Financing: From January 5th - 11th, 2026, the government bond net payment was about 43.27 billion yuan, including about 31.5 billion yuan for national bonds and about 11.77 billion yuan for local government bonds. From January 12th - 18th, the government bond net payment is expected to be - 9.31 billion yuan [7]. 3.2 Negotiable Certificates of Deposit (NCDs) - Yield: As of January 9th, 2026, the yields of 1M and 3M NCDs were 1.5325% and 1.5950% respectively, up 3.7 and 5.5 basis points compared to December 31st, 2025. The 1Y NCD yield was 1.6325%, up 0.8 basis points [8]. - Net Financing: From January 5th - 11th, 2026, the NCD net financing was about - 15.2 billion yuan. From January 12th - 18th, the NCD maturity repayment is expected to be 80.85 billion yuan, with a significant increase in the renewal scale [8]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior - Bank - Interbank Bond Market Leverage Ratio: From January 5th - 9th, 2026, the average leverage ratio of the bank - interbank bond market was 108.11%, up from 107.78% in the period of December 29th - 31st, 2025. On January 9th, 2026, it was about 108.19%, compared to about 107.36% on December 31st, 2025 [9]. - Duration of Pure Bond Funds: On January 9th, 2026, the median duration of medium - and long - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 4.89 years, down 0.21 years week - on - week, at the 91.2% quantile since early 2022. The median duration of short - term interest - rate style pure bond funds (MA5) was 1.87 years, up 0.18 years week - on - week, at the 59.8% quantile since early 2022 [9].