Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-13 10:08Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic cotton market currently has relatively sufficient supply with accelerated national cotton inspection and increased port pick - up after quota issuance. Brazilian cotton is arriving in a concentrated manner, leading to an increase in inventory. As of the week ending January 8th, the inventory at major import cotton ports increased by 0.55% week - on - week, reaching a total of 39.95 million tons [2]. - Downstream textile enterprises have limited orders, lower than the previous year's level. Some fabric mills may have early holidays. However, the expected decline in cotton planting area in the new year provides some support to the cotton market. The January US Department of Agriculture supply - demand report is positive, and the short - term cotton price center is expected to continue to rise. Attention should be paid to macro and policy impacts [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton main contract closing price: 14,760 yuan/ton, up 135 yuan; cotton yarn main contract closing price: 20,765 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan [2]. - Cotton futures top 20 net positions: - 182,457 lots, down 11,680 lots; cotton yarn futures top 20 net positions: - 1,939 lots, down 89 lots [2]. - Cotton main contract positions: 837,159 lots, up 19,206 lots; cotton yarn main contract positions: 16,032 lots, down 153 lots [2]. - Cotton warehouse receipts: 8,410 lots, up 642 lots; cotton yarn warehouse receipts: 70 lots, up 10 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B): 15,783 yuan/ton; China Yarn Price Index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S): 21,300 yuan/ton [2]. - China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff): 12,616 yuan/ton; China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty): 13,735 yuan/ton [2]. - Imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton carded yarn 32S arrival price): 21,025 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; imported cotton yarn price index (pure - cotton combed yarn 32S arrival price): 22,352 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - National cotton sowing area: 2,838.3 thousand hectares, up 48.3 thousand hectares; national cotton output: 6.16 million tons, up 540,000 tons [2]. - Cotton - yarn price difference: 5,517 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan; national industrial inventory of cotton: 850,000 tons, up 65,000 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - Cotton import volume (monthly): 120,000 tons, up 30,000 tons; cotton yarn import volume (monthly): 150,000 tons, up 10,000 tons [2]. - Imported cotton profit: 2,048 yuan/ton, down 118 yuan; national commercial inventory of cotton: 4.6836 million tons, up 1.753 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - Yarn inventory days: 26.33 days, up 0.21 days; grey fabric inventory days: 32.34 days, up 0.37 days [2]. - Cloth output (monthly): 2.81 billion meters, up 0.19 billion meters; yarn output (monthly): 2.039 million tons, up 38,000 tons [2]. - Clothing and clothing accessories export amount (monthly): 11,593,686 thousand US dollars, up 590,205.57 thousand US dollars; textile yarn, fabric and products export amount (monthly): 12,275,733 thousand US dollars [2]. 3.6 Option Market - Cotton at - the - money call option implied volatility: 13.12%, down 0.23%; cotton at - the - money put option implied volatility: 13.12%, down 0.22% [2]. - Cotton 20 - day historical volatility: 13.34%, up 0.14%; cotton 60 - day historical volatility: 8.84%, up 0.05% [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the 2025/26 US cotton January supply - demand outlook, compared with December, production and ending stocks decreased, while beginning stocks and imports remained unchanged. Production decreased by over 2% to 13.9 million bales, mainly due to the decline in the Delta region. The national average yield decreased by 8% to 856 pounds per acre. Ending stocks decreased by 7% to 4.2 million bales [2]. - ICE cotton futures rose on Monday. The US Department of Agriculture supply - demand report predicted stable cotton demand and lowered production estimates. The weaker US dollar and the rise in the broader commodity market further boosted cotton prices. The ICE March cotton futures contract closed up 0.50 cents, or 0.78%, at 64.91 cents per pound [2].