Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2026-01-13 10:08Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Report's Core View The overall data of the domestic sugar market is slightly bearish, but the market's expectation of a decline in Brazil's export prospects supports the sugar market. In the short term, sugar prices are expected to fluctuate mainly [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the futures main contract for sugar was 5253 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan; the main contract position was 429949 lots, a decrease of 1446 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 9499, an increase of 560; the net buying volume of the top 20 futures positions was -68156 lots; the effective warehouse receipt forecast was 2069, a decrease of 560 [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The import processing estimated price of Brazilian sugar within the quota was 4036 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; the import processing estimated price of Thai sugar within the quota was 4086 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan; the estimated price of imported Brazilian sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5112 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the estimated price of imported Thai sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 5178 yuan/ton; the spot price of white sugar in Yunnan Kunming was 5230 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of white sugar in Guangxi Nanning was 5360 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of white sugar in Guangxi Liuzhou was 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The national sugar - cane planting area was 1480 thousand hectares; the cumulative sales volume of cane sugar in Guangxi was 8.94 million tons; the planting area of sugar - cane in Guangxi was 840.33 thousand hectares; the cumulative output of cane sugar in Yunnan was 4.48 million tons; the total export volume of Brazilian sugar was 291.3 million tons, a decrease of 38.9 million tons; the price difference between imported Brazilian sugar and the current price of Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1288 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar within the quota was 1238 yuan/ton; the price difference between imported Thai sugar and Liuzhou sugar outside the quota (50% tariff) was 146 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume of sugar was 44 million tons, a decrease of 31 million tons; the cumulative import volume of sugar was 434 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of refined sugar was 130.3 million tons, an increase of 42 million tons; the monthly output of soft drinks was 1045.7 million tons, a decrease of 50.5 million tons [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar was 9.24%, a decrease of 0.22%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for sugar was 9.24%, a decrease of 0.22%; the 20 - day historical volatility of sugar was 10.82%, a decrease of 0.06%; the 60 - day historical volatility of sugar was 7.54%, unchanged [2]. 3.7 Industry News - Brazil exported 74.05 million tons of sugar in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export volume of 12.34 million tons, a 32% increase compared to the daily average export volume of 9.37 million tons in January of the previous year. The total export volume in January of the previous year was 206.2 million tons. The ICE raw sugar futures fell on Monday, but the decline was limited by the weakening of the US dollar. The most actively traded March raw sugar futures fell 0.05 cents or 0.30%, settling at 14.84 cents per pound [2]. 3.8 Viewpoint Summary - In December, the monthly sugar output in Guangxi was 180.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 43.1 million tons, and the monthly sales volume was 79.54 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 55.18 million tons. As of December 31, 2025, the cumulative sugar output in Yunnan was 39.23 million tons, higher than 32.69 million tons in the same period of the previous crushing season; the cumulative sugar sales volume in Yunnan was 28.14 million tons, compared with 26.71 million tons in the same period of last year [2].