美国农业部1月大豆/玉米供需报告解读

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The January 2026 USDA soybean and corn supply - demand reports are generally bearish. After the release of the reports, soybean prices dropped rapidly. The unexpected adjustments in export data and increases in inventory are the main bearish factors [1]. - The quarterly inventory data of soybeans and corn as of December 1, 2026 are also bearish [4][18]. 3. Summary by Category Soybean - US 24/25 Season: The residual value in the soybean balance sheet was adjusted from 32 to 23 million bushels, and the ending inventory increased from 316 million to 325 million bushels [2]. - US 25/26 Season: The planted and harvested areas increased by 100,000 acres each. The yield per acre remained at 53, and the total output increased from 4.253 billion to 4.262 billion bushels. The crush demand increased from 2.555 billion to 2.57 billion bushels, and the export target decreased from 1.635 billion to 1.575 billion bushels. The ending inventory increased from 290 million to 350 million bushels [2]. - Global: In the 25/26 season, Brazil's soybean output increased by 3 million tons to 178 million tons. The crush, domestic demand, and exports increased, and the ending inventory increased by 400,000 tons. Argentina's output remained at 48.5 million tons, and Paraguay's output remained at 11 million tons. The total output of the three major South American producers is expected to increase by 4.69 million tons year - on - year. China's imports and crush in the 25/26 season remained at 112 million tons and 108 million tons respectively. The global ending inventory increased from 122.37 million tons to 124.41 million tons [3]. - Quarterly Inventory: As of December 1, 2026, the US soybean quarterly inventory was 3.29 billion bushels, a 6% year - on - year increase, higher than the market forecast of 3.25 billion bushels [4]. Corn - US 24/25 Season: The supply side remained unchanged. The feed & residual demand decreased by 12 million bushels, and the food, seed, & industrial demand decreased by 8 million bushels. The total demand decreased by 20 million bushels, and the ending inventory increased from 1.532 billion to 1.551 billion bushels [16]. - US 25/26 Season: The planted area increased from 98.7 million to 98.8 million acres, and the harvested area increased from 90 million to 91.3 million acres. The yield per acre increased from 186 to 186.5 bushels, and the total output increased from 16.752 billion to 17.021 billion bushels. The feed & residual demand increased by 100 million bushels, and the food, seed, & industrial demand decreased by 10 million bushels. The ending inventory increased from 2.029 billion to 2.227 billion bushels [16]. - Global: In the 25/26 season, Brazil's beginning inventory increased by 1.5 million tons, the output remained at 131 million tons, and the ending inventory increased by 1.5 million tons. Argentina's beginning inventory increased by 300,000 tons, the output remained at 53 million tons, and the ending inventory remained unchanged. The outputs of Russia, South Africa, and Ukraine remained unchanged. The global ending inventory increased from 279.15 million tons to 290.91 million tons [17][18]. - Quarterly Inventory: As of December 1, 2026, the US corn quarterly inventory was 13.282 billion bushels, higher than the previous year's 12.075 billion bushels and the market forecast of 12.962 billion bushels [18].