抢出口预期抬升市场情绪，锂价延续大幅上行

Report Summary Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the reports. Core Viewpoints - The lithium price continues to rise significantly, driven by the adjustment of tax policies. The expected "rush to export" during the policy transition period boosts demand in the traditional off - season, and the lithium price is still in an upward channel, but there is a risk of callback if the price increase is passed on to downstream [1]. - For the on - site options, considering the limited strike price of call options and high volatility premium, one can use buying in - the - money call options for long - hedging or bull call spread combinations to protect part of the upside space and reduce costs [2]. - For off - site options, customers with long positions planning to gradually reduce their positions can consider arranging Phoenix Knock - out Put Options with a moderate cycle and a wide range to seize the opportunity to reduce positions at high prices and gain additional income in a wide - range volatile market [3]. Summary by Related Content Lithium Market - The lithium carbonate futures market performs strongly. As of the mid - day close on January 13, 2026, the main 2605 contract is reported at 170,200 yuan/ton, up 9.51%. The rise is mainly driven by the adjustment of the battery product's VAT export refund rate from 9% to 6 from April 1 to December 31, 2026, and the planned full cancellation on January 1, 2027 [1]. - In the context of rising raw material prices, the cost of various types of battery cells has generally increased by 15% - 20% in the past two months. The "rush to export" behavior is expected to boost demand in the traditional off - season, and the lithium price is in an upward channel, with the short - term high affected by long - profit - taking [1]. - If the price increase in the industrial chain is successfully passed on to the downstream, it may suppress terminal demand and bring a callback risk [1]. On - site Options Given the limited strike price of call options and high volatility premium, one can use buying in - the - money call options for long - hedging or bull call spread combinations to protect part of the upside space and reduce costs [2]. Off - site Options Customers with long positions planning to gradually reduce their positions can consider arranging Phoenix Knock - out Put Options with a moderate cycle and a wide range to seize the opportunity to reduce positions at high prices and gain additional income in a wide - range volatile market [3].