多空因素交织，煤焦震荡整理：煤焦日报-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views - Coke: On January 13, the main coke contract closed at 1,745 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 1.08%. The position of the main contract was 37,900 lots, a decrease of 1,031 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of the first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1,470 yuan/ton, flat week - on - week; the ex - warehouse price of the first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port was 1,500 yuan/ton, up 2.04% week - on - week. This week, downstream steel mills gradually resumed production, but the resumption speed was slow, and the improvement of the coke fundamentals was limited. The relative positive factor lies in the strong supply - side expectation of upstream coking coal. In summary, the fundamentals of coke itself are still weak, but after entering the new year, the upward driving forces such as economic policy expectations, "anti - involution" policy expectations, and downstream winter storage replenishment expectations are gradually emerging, driving coke to consolidate at a low level [5][32]. - Coking Coal: On January 13, the main coking coal contract closed at 1,191 points, with an intraday decline of 2.50%. The position of the main contract was 504,500 lots, a decrease of 8,128 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1,200 yuan/ton, up 8.11% week - on - week. Overall, after New Year's Day, coking coal is expected to enter a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The short - term fundamentals are hard to show obvious improvement, but the positive driving forces such as economic policy expectations, "anti - involution" policy expectations, downstream winter storage replenishment expectations, and the expectation of coal mine production reduction during the Spring Festival are gradually emerging. With multiple factors intertwined, coking coal futures are oscillating and adjusting at a low level [6][33]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - Manufacturing Policy: On January 13, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology, Li Lecheng, presided over the 18th symposium for manufacturing enterprises. The meeting emphasized that entrepreneurs should adhere to their main business, accelerate high - quality development, deepen innovation, and strengthen self - discipline to create a benign ecological environment and contribute to the construction of a manufacturing power [8]. - Coking Coal Auction: On January 13, the online auction price of coking coal in Changzhi Qinyuan market increased. The starting price of low - sulfur lean primary coking coal (A8, S0.5, G65) was 1,450 yuan/ton, the average transaction price was 1,579 yuan/ton, and 30,000 tons were traded, with a price increase of 100 yuan/ton compared with the previous period on the 5th. All are ex - factory prices including cash and tax [9]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, first - grade flat - price) | 1,470 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 10.37% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1,500 yuan/ton | 2.04% | 3.45% | - 7.41% | - 3.85% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,200 yuan/ton | 8.11% | 6.19% | 1.69% | 2.56% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,620 yuan/ton | 5.19% | 7.28% | 8.72% | 9.46% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,650 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 2.94% | 7.84% | 7.84% | [10] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,745 yuan/ton | - 1.08% | 1,785 yuan/ton | 1,738 yuan/ton | 20,384 | - 1,868 | 37,939 | - 1,031 | | Coking Coal | | 1,191 points | - 2.50% | 1,244 points | 1,188 points | 1,292,258 | - 304,912 | 504,497 | - 8,128 | [14] 3.4 Related Charts - Coke Inventory: There are charts showing the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port coke inventory, 247 steel mill coking plant inventory, and total coke inventory [14][15][16]. - Coking Coal Inventory: There are charts showing the coking coal inventory at the mine mouth, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants, port coking coal inventory, and the coking coal inventory of 247 sample steel mills [21][23][24]. - Other Charts: There are charts showing domestic steel mill production, Shanghai terminal screw steel procurement volume, coal washing plant production, and coking plant operation [27][28][32]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Coke: The analysis is the same as the core view of coke, with the main contract price, position change, spot price change, and market situation analyzed, and it is expected to consolidate at a low level [5][32]. - Coking Coal: The analysis is the same as the core view of coking coal, with the main contract price, position change, spot price change, and market situation analyzed, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust at a low level [6][33].