油脂产业周报：棕油产地压力预计减轻，油脂市场情绪转乐观-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, with the core driver still in the overseas market. The core contradictions mainly include the game between palm oil origin inventory pressure and demand growth, the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy, the unclear result of China - Canada talks, and the sufficient overall supply of domestic three major oils [1][2]. - Under the suppression of the weak domestic reality, the market maintains a wide - range volatile operation, waiting for the US energy policy to boost the oil market, the destocking progress in Malaysia, and new developments in Indonesia's B50 plan. Due to the lack of trend - driving factors, short - term trading should be treated within a range. Palm oil may remain relatively strong in the sector [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Palm Oil: In December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and the ending inventory was 3.051 million tons, a 7.58% month - on - month increase. The inventory is at a seven - year high, but it is expected to improve after the production reduction season. Indonesia's B50 plan is expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026, supporting long - term demand but with limited short - term benefits [1]. - US Biodiesel: The US biodiesel policy is unclear, and the allocation ratio is uncertain. It is expected that the final result will be announced in the first quarter of 2026, and the result is likely to continue the June proposal, which is beneficial to US soybean oil [1]. - Canola Oil: The result of China - Canada talks is unclear. The global new - season rapeseed harvest is good, and the arrival of Australian rapeseed eases the supply tension. If China - Canada relations improve, the supply pressure of canola oil will increase. Canadian Prime Minister is expected to visit China from January 14 - 17, 2026 [2]. - Domestic Oil Supply: The inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined but the overall supply is still sufficient. Canola oil is in the process of destocking with relatively limited pressure, while soybean oil has the highest inventory and the greatest pressure [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend Judgement: Short - term rebound trend within the range, and there is still room for palm oil to rise in the medium term [19]. - Price Range: The oscillation range of P2605 is [8200 - 8900], Y2605 is [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 is [8600 - 9500] [19]. - Technical Analysis: Treat P05 and Y05 as single - side rebound trends within the range, pay attention to whether the upper pressure level can be broken. Observe the weakening trend of the canola - palm and canola - soybean spreads for arbitrage [19]. - Strategy for Basis, Calendar Spread and Hedging Arbitrage: The current basis should be viewed with a short - term weak oscillation idea. There is no calendar spread strategy for now. The canola - palm and canola - soybean spreads should be treated as weakening [20]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Oil Price Range Forecast: The price range of soybean oil is 7600 - 8100, canola oil is 8600 - 9500, and palm oil is 8200 - 8800. The current volatility and historical percentile of volatility are also provided [23]. - Oil Hedging Strategy: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refineries, and oil mills according to their inventory situations and concerns, including short - selling and long - buying soybean oil futures with corresponding hedging ratios and recommended entry intervals [23]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Palm Oil: Provides the latest prices, price changes, and basis data of palm oil futures contracts and spot prices, as well as related spreads such as POGO and international soybean - palm spreads [24]. - Soybean Oil: Provides the latest prices, price changes, and basis data of soybean oil futures contracts and spot prices, as well as related spreads such as BOHO and domestic soybean - palm spreads [24]. - Canola Oil: Provides the latest prices, price changes, and basis data of canola oil futures contracts and spot prices, as well as related spreads such as the domestic soybean - canola spread [25]. - Oil Calendar and Cross - Variety Spreads: Provides price and price change data of calendar spreads and cross - variety spreads of the three major oils [25][26]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Positive Information: Malaysia's palm oil production in 2026 is expected to be 19.5 - 19.8 million tons, and the inventory is expected to be 2 million tons. The price of crude palm oil is expected to be between 4000 - 4300 ringgit/ton. Malaysia's palm oil exports from January 1 - 10, 2026 increased by 17.65% compared with the same period last month [27]. - Negative Information: The US corn production in 2025/26 is expected to increase, and the ending inventory will increase. Malaysia's palm oil inventory in December 2025 increased by 7.58% month - on - month. As of December 1, 2025, the US soybean inventory increased by 6% year - on - year, and the consumption decreased by 20% year - on - year [28]. - Spot Transaction Information: Recent oil transactions have remained stable and weak, with relatively high soybean oil transactions, sporadic palm oil transactions, and no canola oil transactions for now [29]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Attention Events - Domestic High - Frequency Weekly Inventory Data [37]. - High - Frequency Production and Export Data of Malaysian Palm Oil [37]. - Origin Weather Information [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic Market - Single - Side Trend: The domestic oil market showed some differentiation this week. Soybean oil and palm oil rebounded within the range, while canola oil maintained an overall oscillation. The lack of trend - driving factors and the unclear US biodiesel policy limit the demand expansion of the global oil market. Attention should be paid to US bioenergy policy information and origin destocking progress [33]. - Capital Movement: The changes in the positions of key profitable seats in palm oil, soybean oil, and canola oil are relatively small. Some seats slightly increased short positions in palm oil and soybean oil, while canola oil reduced short positions. Foreign - funded seats reduced short positions and increased long positions in soybean oil and canola oil, and slightly reduced long positions in palm oil [34]. - Calendar Spread Structure: The oil market still shows a Back structure. This week, the Back structure of palm oil was relatively steep. The Y5 - 9 spread of soybean oil increased due to the single - side rebound of Y05. The OI5 - 9 spread of canola oil was mainly in consolidation [36]. - Basis Structure: The main basis of oils continued to grind at the bottom this week. The basis of soybean and palm oils remained weakly operating, while the basis of canola oil fluctuated more significantly. With the improvement of expectations due to the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China, the main basis of canola oil gradually weakened [44]. - Spread Structure: Due to the lack of further information, cross - variety spreads oscillated mainly. As palm oil enters the production reduction season and starts destocking, the canola - palm spread is still expected to weaken [56]. - Foreign Market - Foreign Market Trend: The foreign market mainly rebounded this week. Palm oil sentiment turned optimistic due to Malaysia's entry into the production reduction season, better - than - expected export boost, and signs of drought. Crude oil strengthened due to geopolitical conflicts, driving US soybean oil to oscillate strongly, and the cost - performance of international palm oil also improved slightly [59]. - Capital Position: The net position ratio of managed funds has declined from a high level, and the bullish sentiment has cooled down. Commercial positions such as producers and traders have a relatively high net short position ratio, which limits the further upward space of prices [61]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industry Chain - The POGO spread decreased slightly this week, but the cost of palm oil - based biofuel remains high. The BOHO spread continued to weaken, and the cost of US soybean oil - based biodiesel remained at a recent low level due to sufficient global soybean supply [67]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The origin's quotes are firm, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which limits long - term ship purchases [69]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In December 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and the ending inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month. The supply pressure is still large, but the better - than - expected export improvement is expected to promote the destocking process. The latest high - frequency data shows that Malaysia's production decreased in January 2026, and exports are optimistically boosted. The inventory inflection point may appear in January [71]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - Palm Oil: In the off - season of demand, transactions are difficult to improve. The origin is in the production reduction stage, and the willingness to destock and sell is limited. The import profit in China is inverted, and ship purchases are expected to remain low. Wait for the rebound after the origin's inventory pressure eases [73]. - Soybean Oil: In the first quarter, it is the seasonal low point of soybean arrival, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is large, and the overall supply is still relatively loose. Pay attention to the possible short - term supply tension caused by the arrival rhythm [73]. - Canola Oil: Downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the quantity is limited, and inventory continues to be destocked. The global rapeseed harvest is good, the cost price is weak, and the import of Russian canola oil increases. If China - Canada relations improve, domestic canola oil supply will further increase [73]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - Short - term inventory of the three major oils is still relatively high year - on - year, and downstream demand is sluggish. After the Spring Festival stocking, the market boost is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak. The market is expected to turn dull after the festival [76].