政策影响下的多晶硅：波折前行，前景仍在

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, the "rush to export" market caused by the adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy boosts market confidence and improves the extremely sluggish demand in the off - season. The increase in component exports from January to March will drive the growth of polysilicon demand. But if enterprises do not actively cut production to digest inventory, polysilicon prices will face significant downward pressure in the medium and long term [2][21]. - In the long run, cost control and technological optimization are the core competitiveness of enterprises and key variables affecting the long - term trend of polysilicon futures. As the industry returns to a market - oriented competition order, the supply - demand pattern will shift from "oversupply and high inventory" to a healthy state, and the futures price will more accurately reflect the real value of the industry [3][21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Policy Influence - Since May 2025, rumors and measures related to polysilicon capacity storage have dominated the sentiment and price trend of polysilicon futures, showing characteristics of "expected - driven rise - regulatory cooling and shock - policy reversal and sharp decline". The establishment of the capacity integration and acquisition platform "Guanghe Qiancheng" in December 2025 drove the futures price to a high of 61,985 yuan/ton on December 17. However, subsequent regulatory interventions, including the market supervision department's约谈 of leading enterprises in January 2026, reversed the policy expectation, causing a sharp decline in the futures price [4]. Current Situation of the Polysilicon Industry - From January 2023 to December 2025, the polysilicon industry's over - supply is a long - term problem with periodic adjustments. The mismatch between production expansion and demand, and the subsequent supply rebound after industry adjustment, have led to continuous over - supply. The industry's high inventory, reaching 32,234 tons for polysilicon enterprises and over 500,000 tons in the industrial chain by 2026, will suppress prices in the first half of 2026 [7][9]. - Before 2024, the photovoltaic industry chain had high profitability. After 2024, intensified competition led to profit decline. In the second half of 2025, profits concentrated in the polysilicon segment, while downstream segments suffered losses. The anti - monopoly约谈 in January 2026 will reshape the profit distribution logic, promoting a return to market - oriented rationality [10][13]. Cancellation of Export Tax Rebates - From April 1, 2026, the 13% VAT export tax - rebate rate for photovoltaic products will be zeroed, and the tax - rebate rate for power batteries will be gradually reduced to zero. Before April 1, a "rush to export" is likely to occur. It is estimated that the demand for polysilicon may increase by 1 - 1.5 tons per month, and the oversupply may be reduced to less than 10,000 tons. However, after April, the demand will face pressure, and enterprises need to cut production [16][18]. Polysilicon Futures - In the short term, the "rush to export" will drive polysilicon demand growth. But without production cuts, prices will face downward pressure in the medium and long term. In the long run, cost control and technological optimization will drive the industry to a more balanced state, and the futures price will better reflect the real value of the industry [21].