螺纹日报：震荡整理-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautiously bullish outlook on the rebar market and suggests that buying on dips is relatively safe [5] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak, but attention should be paid to the potential increase in demand driven by the warming up of winter storage sentiment. Production continues to rise but is relatively low compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy is expected to shrink production capacity, providing support at the bottom. Inventory has started to accumulate but is at a relatively low level with limited pressure. In January, it enters the inventory accumulation cycle, and subsequent inventory accumulation should be monitored. The raw material cost is strong, and the real estate demand is in a downward cycle with limited incremental demand, restricting the upside. However, infrastructure demand may have some resilience. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support around the 10 - day moving average, and a cautiously bullish approach should be maintained [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract reduced its open interest by 38,760 lots on Tuesday, with lower trading volume than the previous trading day. The trading volume was 837,879 lots. It fluctuated and consolidated throughout the day, briefly falling below the 5 - day moving average but remaining above the 10 - day and 20 - day moving averages. The lowest price was 3,150 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,173 yuan/ton, and it closed at 3,158 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,310 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 152 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures market was cost - effective [1] Fundamental Data Supply - demand situation - Supply side: As of the week ending January 8, rebar production increased by 28,200 tons to 1.9104 million tons week - on - week, rising for four consecutive weeks. It was 83,700 tons lower than the same period last year. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 surveyed steel mills was 79.31%, up 0.37 percentage points week - on - week and 2.13 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 86.04%, up 0.78 percentage points week - on - week and 1.80 percentage points year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 37.66%, down 0.44 percentage points week - on - week and 12.99 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 2.295 million tons, up 20,700 tons week - on - week. Although production continued to rise, the weekly rebar production was still relatively low compared to recent years [2] - Demand side: The off - season effect deepened, and winter storage was cautious. As of the week ending January 8, the apparent consumption decreased by 254,800 tons to 1.7496 million tons week - on - week and was 150,900 tons lower than the same period last year. Construction in the north had stopped, and projects in the south were nearing completion. The apparent demand had declined for three consecutive weeks. Attention should be paid to the start of winter storage demand [2] - Inventory side: Inventory started to increase. As of the week ending January 8, the total inventory increased by 160,800 tons to 4.3811 million tons week - on - week, starting to accumulate after 9 consecutive weeks of depletion. The social inventory was 2.9018 million tons, up 75,200 tons week - on - week but still at a low level in recent years. The steel mill inventory was 1.4793 million tons, up 85,600 tons. The accumulation of social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and subsequent inventory accumulation should be monitored [3][4] Macro - level - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. It aimed to stabilize the real estate market, control new supply, reduce inventory, and optimize supply according to local conditions, and encourage the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - economic outlook was moderately positive. The 15th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Although the incremental demand was relatively limited, the loose cycle provided some support, and the demand ceiling determined the pressure [4] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low, supply - side anti - involution production cuts, strict production capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - holiday demand, and loose macro - economic expectations [5] - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slower inventory depletion, accelerated blast furnace restart, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery [5] Short - term View Summary - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak, but attention should be paid to the potential increase in demand due to the warming up of winter storage sentiment. Production continues to rise but is at a relatively low level compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy is expected to shrink production capacity, providing support at the bottom. Inventory has started to accumulate but is at a relatively low level with limited pressure. In January, it enters the inventory accumulation cycle, and subsequent inventory accumulation should be monitored. The raw material cost is strong, and the real estate demand is in a downward cycle with limited incremental demand, restricting the upside. However, infrastructure demand may have some resilience. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support around the 10 - day moving average, and a cautiously bullish approach should be maintained, with buying on dips being relatively safe [5]