PVC日报：震荡下行-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend for the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulus of the cancellation of export tax rebates, despite facing challenges such as high inventory, weak downstream demand, and limited Indian market demand [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67% and is at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate increased slightly but is still lower than before the New Year's Day holiday, with poor downstream product orders. Export orders decreased last week, and the Indian market has limited demand. Social inventory continued to increase and remains high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and its improvement needs time. New production capacity has been added, and the macro - atmosphere is warm, but the chlor - alkali comprehensive gross profit is under pressure [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract decreased in positions and oscillated downward, closing at 4888 yuan/ton, up 1.73%, with a decrease of 24,293 lots in open interest to 1,034,623 lots [2] Basis - On January 13, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4605 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4888 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 283 yuan/ton, strengthening by 28 yuan/ton and at a relatively low level [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Affected by some plants, the PVC operating rate increased by 1.04 percentage points to 79.67%. New production capacities such as Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) have been put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] - Demand side: The real estate market is in the adjustment stage. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area and sales volume of commercial housing decreased year - on - year. The new construction area, construction area, and completion area also decreased year - on - year. As of the week of January 11, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 48.65% week - on - week and was at the lowest level in recent years [5] - Inventory: As of the week of January 8, the PVC social inventory increased by 3.48% week - on - week to 1.1141 million tons, 40.98% higher than the same period last year, and the inventory remains high [6]