玻璃日报：短线震荡偏弱-20260113

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a short - term investment rating for the glass industry as oscillating weakly in the short term [1] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term. The supply has a contraction expectation, but real - estate demand remains weak. The supply has slightly rebounded, and the cost support has weakened, causing the short - term disk to decline. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and production line cold - repair situations [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Market: The glass main contract oscillated lower during the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing trumpet shape, breaking below the middle - rail line and entering the weak area. The intraday pressure is near the 60 - day moving average, and support is near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 138,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest increased by 91,374 lots. The intraday high was 1144, the low was 1096, and the closing price was 1096, down 35 yuan/ton or 3.09% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: Transactions were okay, and some manufacturers held firm on prices. In North China, manufacturers' shipments were flexible, the price of large - size glass in Shahe decreased, and the transaction center in the Beijing - Tianjin - Tangshan area moved up. In East China, downstream buyers made purchases based on rigid demand, and prices in Jiangsu continued to rise. In Central China, there were differences in transactions, and market prices were stable. In South China, enterprises made appropriate purchases, and overall trading was good [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1020, and the basis was - 76 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, the daily average output of national float glass was 150,100 tons, a decrease of 0.96% compared to the 1st. The national float glass output was 1.0592 billion tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.9%. The industry's average start - up rate was 71.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08%; the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.03% [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 55.518 million heavy boxes, a month - on - month decrease of 1.348 million heavy boxes or 2.37%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.04%. The inventory days in terms of conversion was 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days compared to the previous period. Currently, the overall inventory of glass enterprises is on a declining trend, and there are still expectations of further decline in the future [2] - Demand: The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are gradually ending, and the order execution days are decreasing, currently concentrated between 10 - 15 days. Home - decoration orders are mainly low - value scattered orders [2][3] Main Logic Summary - Supply - side production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, accelerating the clearance of some enterprises' production capacity, with a supply contraction expectation. However, real - estate development investment and capital availability continue to decline year - on - year, and completion and new construction are weak, with no improvement in real - estate demand. Today, a glass production line was restarted, supply slightly rebounded, and coal price declined, weakening the cost support for glass. The short - term disk oscillated and declined, and attention should be paid to the support trend near the 20 - day K - line moving average [4]