橡胶甲醇原油：偏多因素提振，能化偏强运行

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - Rubber: On Tuesday this week, the 2605 contract of domestic Shanghai rubber futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, surging and then giving back gains, and stabilizing in a volatile manner. The intraday price center slightly moved down to around 15,975 yuan/ton. At the close, the price closed slightly up 0.00% at 15,975 yuan/ton. The premium of the May - September spread widened to 30 yuan/ton. Currently, the domestic rubber market is dominated by supply - demand fundamentals, and rubber prices may maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern [6]. - Methanol: On Tuesday this week, the 2605 contract of domestic methanol futures showed a trend of increasing volume, reducing positions, weakening in a volatile manner, and closing slightly lower. The futures price rose to a maximum of 2,295 yuan/ton and dropped to a minimum of 2,229 yuan/ton. At the close, it closed slightly down 0.18% at 2,263 yuan/ton. The discount of the May - September spread widened to 5 yuan/ton. There are differences between long and short positions, and methanol futures maintain a volatile and stable trend [6]. - Crude Oil: On Tuesday this week, the 2603 contract of domestic crude oil futures showed a trend of reducing volume, increasing positions, rebounding again, and closing sharply higher. The futures price rose to a maximum of 446.7 yuan/barrel and dropped to a minimum of 433.3 yuan/barrel. At the close, the price rose sharply 2.27% to 446.7 yuan/barrel. Geopolitical factors have become prominent again and overshadowed the weak supply - demand fundamentals. After a continuous decline in the previous period, short - term oil prices are expected to stabilize in a volatile manner [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industry Dynamics 3.1.1 Rubber - As of January 4, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 548,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,500 tons, an increase of 4.48%. The general trade inventory increased by 16,900 tons to 460,300 tons, an increase of 3.80%. The bonded area inventory was 88,100 tons, an increase of 8.16% [9]. - As of January 9, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 63.78%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 13.97 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 55.50%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.43 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 3.37 percentage points. It is expected that the capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises will increase in the next cycle [9]. - In December 2025, China's automobile dealer inventory warning index was 57.7%, a year - on - year increase of 7.5 percentage points and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 percentage points. The inventory warning index was above the boom - bust line, indicating a decline in the prosperity of the automobile circulation industry. In December 2025, China's Logistics Industry Prosperity Index (LPI) was 52.4%, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 percentage points, reaching the highest level of the year [10]. - In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles, a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared with November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared with 84,200 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. In 2025, the total sales of China's heavy - truck market reached a new high in the past four years, 1.137 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 26% [10]. 3.1.2 Methanol - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average domestic methanol operating rate was maintained at 86.38%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.20%, a slight month - on - month increase of 2.64%, and a significant year - on - year increase of 6.72%. The average weekly methanol production in China reached 2.0424 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 8,700 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 18,900 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 139,200 tons compared with 1.9032 million tons in the previous year [11]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the domestic formaldehyde operating rate was maintained at 31.05%, a slight week - on - week decrease of 0.65%. The dimethyl ether operating rate was maintained at 7.30%, a slight week - on - week increase of 1.51%. The acetic acid operating rate was maintained at 81.89%, a slight week - on - week increase of 4.28%. The MTBE operating rate was maintained at 58.12%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.01%. The average operating load of domestic coal (methanol) to olefin plants was 81.65%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.33 percentage points and a slight month - on - month decrease of 1.17 percentage points [11]. - As of January 9, 2026, the futures market profit of domestic methanol to olefin was - 270 yuan/ton, a slight week - on - week increase of 30 yuan/ton and a significant month - on - month decrease of 264 yuan/ton [11]. - As of the week of January 9, 2026, the methanol inventory in ports in East and South China was maintained at 1.1593 million tons, a slight week - on - week decrease of 9,300 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 40,800 tons, and a significant year - on - year increase of 402,300 tons. As of the week of December 31, 2025, the total inland methanol inventory in China reached 422,700 tons, a slight week - on - week increase of 18,600 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 49,000 tons, and a slight year - on - year increase of 80,500 tons compared with 342,200 tons in the previous year [12][13]. 3.1.3 Crude Oil - As of the week of January 2, 2026, the number of active oil drilling rigs in the United States was 412, a slight week - on - week increase of 3 and a decrease of 70 compared with the same period of the previous year. The average daily crude oil production in the United States was 13.811 million barrels, a slight week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels per day and a significant year - on - year increase of 248,000 barrels per day, at a historical high [14]. - As of the week of January 2, 2026, the commercial crude oil inventory in the United States (excluding strategic petroleum reserves) reached 419 million barrels, a significant week - on - week decrease of 3.832 million barrels and a significant year - on - year increase of 4.414 million barrels. The crude oil inventory in Cushing, Oklahoma, reached 22.84 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 728,000 barrels. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory reached 413.5 million barrels, a slight week - on - week increase of 245,000 barrels. The refinery operating rate in the United States was maintained at 94.7%, a slight week - on - week increase of 0.1 percentage points, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points, and a slight year - on - year increase of 1.4 percentage points [14]. - As of January 6, 2026, the average non - commercial net long positions in WTI crude oil were maintained at 57,352 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 7,239 contracts and a slight decrease of 1,419 contracts compared with the December average of 58,771 contracts, a decrease of 2.41%. As of January 6, 2026, the average net long positions of Brent crude oil futures funds were maintained at 120,686 contracts, a significant week - on - week decrease of 6,220 contracts and a significant increase of 15,227 contracts compared with the December average of 105,459 contracts, an increase of 14.44% [15]. 3.2 Spot Price Table | Variety | Spot Price | Change from Previous Day | Futures Main Contract | Change from Previous Day | Basis | Change | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | Shanghai Rubber | 15,800 yuan/ton | +100 yuan/ton | 15,975 yuan/ton | - 155 yuan/ton | - 175 yuan/ton | +255 yuan/ton | | Methanol | 2,275 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | 2,263 yuan/ton | +0 yuan/ton | +12 yuan/ton | - 5 yuan/ton | | Crude Oil | 411.4 yuan/barrel | - 0.1 yuan/barrel | 446.7 yuan/barrel | +8.1 yuan/barrel | - 35.3 yuan/barrel | - 8.2 yuan/ton | [17] 3.3 Related Charts - Rubber: Includes charts of rubber basis, May - September spread, SHFE rubber futures inventory, Qingdao bonded area rubber inventory, all - steel tire operating rate trend, and semi - steel tire operating rate trend [18][20][22] [25][27][29]. - Methanol: Includes charts of methanol basis, May - September spread, domestic port inventory, inland social inventory, methanol - to - olefin operating rate change, and coal - to - methanol cost accounting [31][33][35] [37][39][41]. - Crude Oil: Includes charts of crude oil basis, SHFE crude oil futures inventory, US crude oil commercial inventory, US refinery operating rate, WTI crude oil net position change, and Brent crude oil net position change [43][45][46] [48][50][52].