宏观金融日报-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The stock index futures market adjusted on Tuesday after the regulatory authorities cooled down the market on Monday night. The short - term index may continue to oscillate and adjust. Investors are advised to focus on the structure rather than the index, wait for the volatility to decrease, and be aware of the possible disturbances from the annual report performance forecasts of listed companies near the end of January [5]. - Due to the further escalation of geopolitical situations, the safe - haven sentiment has risen. The macro funds may increase their allocation of long - term bonds for risk hedging. At present, when the valuation of long - term bonds is at a low level, it is not advisable to short. It is recommended to lightly try to go long on TL2603 in treasury bond futures [9]. - The precious metals sector showed obvious differentiation in the Asian market today. Silver continued to be strong, mainly driven by macro - level changes such as international geopolitical tensions and the challenge to the Fed's independence. In the short - term, it is difficult for the Powell case to have a major negative impact on gold and silver. Micro - level factors such as tight silver inventory also support the silver price [11][12]. - The shipping companies have lowered the spot freight rates, and the bullish sentiment in the container shipping index market has ebbed. The spot freight rate may reach an inflection point at the end of January if the cargo volume growth before the Spring Festival falls short of expectations. Spot enterprises are recommended to continue with hedging, and positive arbitrage opportunities between EC2604 and EC2608 contracts can be focused on [14]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1当日要闻 - Since January 14, 2026, anti - dumping duties will continue to be imposed on imported solar - grade polysilicon originating from the United States and South Korea for a period of 5 years [2]. - On January 12, CME announced a change in the margin setting method for gold, silver, platinum, and palladium contracts, from a fixed - amount margin to a percentage of the contract's notional value, effective after the close on January 13 [2]. - US President Trump announced that any country conducting business with Iran will face a 25% tariff on all its business with the US, and the US State Department asked US citizens to leave Iran immediately [3]. - The US Department of Justice launched a criminal investigation into Fed Chairman Powell regarding a $2.5 - billion over - budget renovation project of the Fed's headquarters [3]. - Two Chinese - flagged super - large oil tankers that were originally heading to Venezuela to load crude oil for debt repayment have turned back [4]. - Japanese Prime Minister Hayasaka Sanae expressed her intention to dissolve the House of Representatives at the beginning of the parliamentary session on January 23 [4]. 3.2品种观点 3.2.1股指期货 - On Tuesday, the market declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.64%, and the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 3.651 trillion yuan, an increase from the previous trading day. Among the underlying indexes of stock index futures, the CSI 300 fell 0.60%, the SSE 50 fell 0.34%, the CSI 500 fell 1.28%, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.84%. Among the current - month contracts of stock index futures, IF2601 fell 0.56% (basis 5.17 points), IH2601 fell 0.21% (basis 3.67 points), IC2601 fell 1.26% (basis 29.52 points), and IM2601 fell 1.92% (basis 30.67 points) [5]. - The petroleum and petrochemical, pharmaceutical and biological, and non - ferrous metal sectors led the gains, while the military industry, electronics, and communication sectors led the losses [5]. - Since December 16, the Shanghai Composite Index has continued to rise. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets hit a record high for two consecutive days on January 12 and 13, the margin trading balance increased by 45.5 billion yuan on January 12, and the premium and discount of stock index futures narrowed significantly, indicating high market sentiment [5]. - From the perspective of the Spring Festival market evolution, the time is not yet up, but more than half of the upward space has been achieved. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 3 trillion yuan or even increase, the market risk is low; otherwise, attention should be paid [5]. 3.2.2国债期货 - On Tuesday, the central bank conducted 358.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 16.2 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net investment of 342.4 billion yuan. The money market was loose, and the overnight repurchase rate was 1.39% [9]. - Affected by the escalation of geopolitical situations, the safe - haven sentiment rose. Treasury bond futures opened slightly higher in the morning, and futures performed better than spot bonds. TL2603 returned above the 10 - day moving average. In the past four trading days, the trend of treasury bonds has gradually become less correlated with the stock market [9]. - Since December, treasury bond futures have been under pressure due to increased expectations of stable growth and supply concerns. Although the PMI data in December returned above the boom - bust line and relevant policies were implemented at the beginning of the year, the sustainability of the data structure is questionable, and the fundamentals are hard to reverse. Currently, the above negative factors have been partially released [9]. 3.2.3贵金属 - In the Asian market today, the precious metals sector was significantly differentiated. Shanghai silver stood above the 20,000 - yuan integer mark for two consecutive days. Domestic gold and silver rose 1.01% and 5.90% respectively, while platinum and palladium fell 3.32% and 5.22% respectively, with the former two hitting new historical highs during the session [11]. - Speculative funds mainly increased their positions. Gold had a large - scale increase in positions for five consecutive days. According to the initial position data released by CME on the 12th, the total position of New York gold futures was 530,500 lots (+30,990 lots); the total position of New York silver futures was 152,800 lots (+2,306 lots); the total position of New York platinum futures was 77,757 lots (-1,361 lots); the total position of New York palladium futures was 19,519 lots (+113 lots) [11]. 3.2.4集运指数 - Shipping companies have lowered the spot freight rates, and the bullish sentiment in the container shipping index market has ebbed. The 04 - contract of the container shipping index significantly corrected on Tuesday. For example, Hapag - Lloyd lowered the booking freight rates for late January by $50 and $100 to $1,635/TEU and $2,635/FEU respectively; CMA CGM's latest quotes for some February voyages followed the January - end prices [14]. - The current transportation demand is stable, and the supply - demand relationship is relatively balanced. If the cargo volume growth before the Spring Festival falls short of expectations, the spot freight rate may reach an inflection point at the end of January. According to the China Shipping Prosperity Survey data, the prosperity range in the first quarter of this year has dropped to a slight prosperity level compared with the fourth quarter of last year, the confidence of container shipping enterprises has declined, and the corporate profit situation may narrow [14]. 3.3未来24小时重点数据 - Tonight (January 13): At 21:30, the US December CPI annual rate unadjusted (%) is expected to be 2.7 (previous value 2.7); the US December core CPI annual rate unadjusted (%) is expected to be 2.7 (previous value 2.6); at 23:00, the US October seasonally - adjusted annualized total of new home sales (in ten thousand units) is expected to be 70.5 (previous value 70.5) [18]. - Tomorrow (January 14): At 10:00, the State Council Information Office will hold a press conference on China's import and export situation in 2025; at 10:30, China's December trade balance in US dollars (in billions of US dollars) is expected to be 113.3 (previous value 111.68), the December export annual rate in US dollars (%) is expected to be 2.9 (previous value 5.9), and the December import annual rate in US dollars (%) is expected to be 0.8 (previous value 1.9); at 21:30, the US November retail sales monthly rate (%) is expected to be 0.4 (previous value 0), and the US November PPI annual rate (%) is expected to be 2.7 (previous value 2.7); at 23:00, the US December annualized total of existing home sales (in ten thousand units) is expected to be 421 (previous value 413) [18].