豆一：市场情绪好转，期价创下阶段高点

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The domestic soybean market has improved, and the soybean price center has shifted upward. On January 7, 2026, the soybean futures price reached a nearly 16 - month high, and the futures market activity continued to increase [1][29]. - The improvement is due to two main reasons: the better situation in the soybean spot market since 2025, including good auction results, the "low - opening and high - running" price of new - season Northeast soybeans, and the increase in both market and state - reserve purchase prices; and the strong policy sentiment, with industrial policies emphasizing key points to support the soybean industry's development, and the trading sentiment on the market being strong in response to policies. The policy sentiment boosts the trading sentiment and pushes up the price [1][29]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section 1. Soybean Futures Price Reaches a Phased High - On January 7, 2026, the closing price of the main 2605 contract of soybean futures was 4404 yuan/ton, reaching the highest point since mid - August 2024 [3]. - In 2025, the annual total trading volume of soybean futures was about 47.71 million lots (a year - on - year increase of about 65%), and the average daily trading volume was about 200,000 tons (a year - on - year increase of about 64%), both reaching the highest since 2022. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the average daily trading volume climbed to the highest since 2021 [3]. - In 2025, the average daily open interest of soybean futures was about 320,000 lots, a year - on - year increase of about 49%, reaching a new high since 2021. As of the week of January 9, 2026, it was about 370,000 lots, hitting a new high [3]. 2. Improvement in the Spot Market - Good Auction Results: In 2025, the total auction volume of domestic soybeans was about 1.61 million tons, the highest since 2021. The state - reserve soybeans were auctioned 26 times, with 23 successful auctions and 3 failures, and the average success rate was about 47%. Nearly half of the auctions were at a premium, and the last three auctions in December 2025 were all at a premium of 64 - 95 yuan/ton, with a significant increase in the success rate [8][13]. - "Low - opening and High - running" Price of New - season Northeast Soybeans: In the week of October 10, 2025, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some Northeast areas dropped by 40 - 120 yuan/ton compared with the end of September. Then the price rebounded. As of the week of January 9, 2026, the price in the Northeast production area was 4260 - 4360 yuan/ton, a 440 - yuan/ton increase compared with the week of October 10, 2025. The price performance in 2025 was better than that in the same period of 2024 [13]. - Increase in Market Purchase Price: In 2025, the purchase price of new - season Northeast soybeans by some market enterprises was higher than that in the same period of 2024 and was in an upward trend. For example, on September 29, 2025, "Nehe Xiangyu Agricultural Products Co., Ltd." raised the purchase price to 1.92 yuan/jin, higher than the 1.9 yuan/jin in mid - October 2024, and it was further raised to 1.99 yuan/jin by November 9, 2025 [16]. - Increase in State - reserve Purchase Price: In 2025, the state - reserve purchase price was slightly increased. On November 3, 2025, the purchase prices for different protein levels were announced. On November 28, 2025, Suihua Direct Warehouse slightly raised the price, and on December 24, 2025, both the Hulunbuir Reserve Co., Ltd. and Suihua Direct Warehouse raised the purchase price again, with the state - reserve purchase price being higher than the market price and having a positive impact [20]. 3. Strong Policy Sentiment - Industrial Policy: Since the new soybeans were launched in mid - September 2025, domestic policies have supported the development of the soybean industry. Key points such as "grain production capacity improvement", "quality improvement", etc. were emphasized to support the development of the domestic soybean industry [23][24]. - Trade Policy: The domestic market also trades on changes in import soybean policies, such as Sino - US tariff policies and soybean import policies, due to the competitive pressure of imported soybeans on domestic soybeans [24]. - Reserve Policy: The domestic soybean auction rhythm affects short - term supply and market sentiment, and the market also trades on this [24]. 4. Conclusion - The domestic soybean market has improved, and the soybean price center has shifted upward. The improvement is due to the better situation in the spot market and strong policy sentiment. The policy can play a role in guiding the supply - demand relationship of the domestic soybean market and promoting the sustainable development of the industry. Later, attention should be paid to the No. 1 Central Document, the auction rhythm, and the selling pressure of farmers after the Spring Festival [1][29].