软商品日报-20260113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide a comprehensive industry investment rating. For individual products, all are marked with white stars, indicating a short - term balanced state and poor operability, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [1]. 2. Core View - The overall market shows mixed trends across different soft commodities. For most products, due to various factors such as supply - demand imbalances, inventory changes, and production progress, the market is in a state of uncertainty, and the recommended strategy is to wait and see [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton rose today. As of December, national commercial cotton inventory increased, and as of January 8, cotton processing volume increased year - on - year. Xinjiang's planting area reduction was less than expected. Spinning mills' raw material demand has resilience, but downstream orders are average. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to adjust, and the operation strategy is to wait and see [2]. Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. Internationally, the focus is on the Northern Hemisphere's production difference. India's 25/26 sugar production increased, while Thailand's was slower. Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar also fluctuated. In December, Guangxi's sugar production and sales both decreased. Although there is a strong expectation of an increase in Guangxi's production in the 25/26 season, the progress is slow. The operation strategy is to wait and see [3]. Apple - Apple futures prices continued to rise. In Gansu, procurement was active, and in Shaanxi, prices were stable. During the Spring Festival stocking period, most merchants packed their own goods. As of January 8, national cold - storage apple inventory decreased year - on - year, and the de - stocking volume increased. The market trading logic has shifted to demand. The operation strategy is to wait and see [4]. 20 - number Rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, the futures prices of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and butadiene rubber fell. The global natural rubber supply is in a decreasing period, the domestic butadiene rubber device operation rate increased, and the domestic tire operation rate decreased. Rubber inventories increased. The overall situation is that demand is slowly recovering, natural rubber supply is decreasing, synthetic rubber supply is increasing, and market sentiment is weakening. The strategy is to wait and see [6]. Pulp - Pulp futures were generally stable today. Limited by weak downstream demand, the short - term upward potential is restricted. As of January 8, 2026, the inventory of Chinese pulp ports increased. The price difference between softwood and hardwood pulp is narrowing, and the external market's quotes for both have increased. Paper mills' pulp procurement is mainly for immediate needs, and the increase in base paper prices is relatively weak. The operation strategy is to wait and see [7]. Logs - Futures prices fluctuated. Spot prices were stable. The external market's quotes decreased, and the short - term arrival volume will decrease. As of January 9, the daily average outbound volume of logs at 13 ports increased week - on - week, and the total port inventory increased slightly. Low inventory provides some support for prices. The operation strategy is to wait and see [8].