能源日报-20260113

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, and asphalt are all rated ★★★, indicating a clearer long/short trend and relatively appropriate current investment opportunities [2] Core Viewpoints - The main tone of oil prices is a downward trend in the central level dominated by loose supply and demand [4] - The unilateral trend of fuel oil still mainly follows the fluctuations of the crude oil cost side, and the tense geopolitical situation continues to be a key influencing factor [5] - The tight supply of Venezuelan crude oil may affect the raw material supply of domestic refineries, and the market needs to pay close attention to the arrival situation [6] Summary by Related Categories Crude Oil - In January 2026, the global crude oil market faces significant inventory accumulation pressure [4] - If the US relaxes sanctions on Venezuela, Venezuelan oil production and exports may increase [4] - Geopolitical risks drive oil prices to rebound, but the short-term upward space of oil prices is expected to be limited [4] Fuel Oil & Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The unilateral trend of fuel oil follows the fluctuations of the crude oil cost side, and the tense geopolitical situation is a key influencing factor [5] - In the high-sulfur market, if there is a supply interruption or trade flow diversion, domestic refineries may increase the use of fuel oil as an alternative raw material for asphalt production [5] - In the low-sulfur market, the supply scale is expected to gradually increase, and the overseas supply recovery brings a loose pressure, making the fundamentals continue to be weak [5] Asphalt - The arrival volume of imported Venezuelan crude oil in January is sufficient, but the supply may be more affected after February [6] - If the supply of Venezuelan crude oil continues to tighten, refineries may turn to higher-priced alternative oil sources [6] - The market needs to closely monitor the arrival situation of Venezuelan crude oil [6]