每日核心期货品种分析-20260113

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - As of the close on January 13, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance. Carbonate lithium rose over 7%, silver futures over 5%, tin futures over 4%, and SC crude oil over 2%. On the other hand, container shipping to Europe and palladium dropped over 5%, polysilicon over 4%, glass and platinum over 3%, and caustic soda and coking coal over 2%. Stock index futures mostly declined, while treasury bond futures generally rose. In terms of capital flow, some contracts had capital inflows, while others had outflows [4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - As of the close on January 13, domestic futures main contracts had different trends. Carbonate lithium, silver, tin, and SC crude oil had significant increases, while container shipping to Europe, palladium, and other commodities declined. Stock index futures mostly fell, and treasury bond futures generally rose. As of 15:17 on January 13, some contracts had capital inflows, and some had outflows [4][5]. 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Copper - Shanghai copper opened high and then declined during the session. In terms of supply, copper smelters are having difficulty making profits from long - term contracts, and the spot market is weakly stable. The production of refined copper is expected to decline in January. The merger negotiation between Rio Tinto and Glencore may lead to them controlling 15% of the global copper resources. In terms of demand, terminal demand is growing strongly, but the copper products sector is cautious. Copper inventory has increased significantly. The market is worried about US copper tariffs, and the high - price copper has suppressed downstream demand. However, the weakening of the US dollar supports copper prices, and the copper market is expected to have limited decline [7]. 3.2.2 Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium continued to rise significantly today with a narrowing increase and opened the daily limit at noon. The adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy for battery products may lead to a rush - to - export situation. Although the fundamentals are weakening with inventory accumulation, the demand for energy storage batteries is still booming. The market is expected to be strong in the medium and long - term under the stimulation of the rush - to - export, but the potential negative impact of CATL's resumption of production should be noted [9]. 3.2.3 Crude Oil - OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan and suspend production increase in February and March 2026. The US crude oil inventory decreased unexpectedly, but the refined oil inventory increased more than expected. The US oil production is still near the historical high. The market is worried about oil demand, and the global oil supply is in an oversupply situation. The situation in Venezuela and Iran may affect the oil market, and the oil price is expected to fluctuate [10][12]. 3.2.4 Asphalt - The asphalt production rate decreased last week, and the expected production in January 2026 decreased. The downstream construction rates mostly declined, and the national shipment volume decreased. The refinery inventory rate increased but remained at a low level. The situation in Venezuela may affect the supply and cost of domestic asphalt. The asphalt production rate will remain low, and the demand in the north will slow down, while the winter - storage demand is being released. It is recommended to use the reverse - spread strategy before March [13]. 3.2.5 PP - After the New Year's Day, the downstream PP operating rate decreased slightly. On January 13, the PP enterprise operating rate increased but remained at a low level. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is affected by geopolitical factors, and the new production capacity has been put into operation. The downstream is at the end of the peak season, and the order volume is decreasing. The macro - economic environment is improving, but the improvement of the PP supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is expected to be limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15]. 3.2.6 Plastic - On January 13, the plastic operating rate decreased to a neutral level. After the New Year's Day, the PE downstream operating rate increased slightly, but the agricultural film is out of the peak season, and the order volume is decreasing. The petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level. The cost is affected by geopolitical factors, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The downstream demand is expected to decline. The macro - economic environment is improving, but the improvement of the plastic supply - demand pattern is limited, and the upward space is expected to be limited. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16][17]. 3.2.7 PVC - The calcium carbide price in the northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate increased, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly but is still at a low level. The export signing decreased, and the social inventory is still high. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage. New production capacity has been put into operation. The macro - economic environment is improving, but the supply - demand pattern improvement is limited. The 03 - 05 contract is expected to fluctuate strongly under the stimulation of the cancellation of the export tax - rebate [18]. 3.2.8 Coking Coal - Coking coal opened high and then declined during the session. The spot price increased. The supply increased as mines resumed production, and the inventory of mines and coking enterprises increased. The coking enterprise's profit decreased, and the steel mill has a production - resuming expectation but is expected to operate at a low load. The coking coal price is expected to have limited decline [20]. 3.2.9 Urea - Urea opened high and then declined during the session. The upstream factory price is stable, and the order volume is sufficient. The daily production of urea has increased. The agricultural dealers' fertilizer - preparation enthusiasm has increased, but the industrial demand is weak due to the approaching Spring Festival. The inventory is at a low level compared to last year. The urea price is expected to be stable in the short - term and strong in the long - term [21].