沪铜日报：铜盘面高位调整-20260113

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The copper market shows a structure of strong expectations but weak reality. Although downstream demand is weak and there are concerns about tariffs and inventory imbalances, the copper price is supported by the weakening trend of the US dollar, and the copper market is unlikely to experience a sharp decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Section Market Analysis - In 2026, copper smelters cannot profit from long - term contracts, and by - products like sulfuric acid and gold are the main profit sources. The refined - scrap copper price difference is still abnormal, but the weak downstream demand restricts scrap copper trading. Five smelters plan to stop production in January, and one new smelter's operation is postponed, leading to a decline in refined copper production. The potential merger of Rio Tinto and Glencore may control 15% of global copper supply, highlighting the tight supply expectation. Terminal demand grows strongly, but the copper product sector is cautious, and high prices and year - end holidays slow down raw material procurement, resulting in a significant increase in copper inventory. The market is worried about US refined copper tariffs, and the high price suppresses downstream demand. The weakening US dollar supports the copper price [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened and closed lower today with intraday fluctuations [4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 50 yuan/ton, and in South China is 20 yuan/ton. On January 12, 2026, the LME official price was 13310 US dollars/ton, with a spot premium of +70 US dollars/ton [4] Supply - side - As of January 12, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 45.1 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.6 cents/pound [6] Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 122,100 tons, an increase of 5505 tons from the previous period. As of January 12, Shanghai bonded - area copper inventory is 111,000 tons, an increase of 9200 tons; LME copper inventory is 137,200 tons, a decrease of 1750 tons; COMEX copper inventory is 520,400 short tons, an increase of 3042 short tons [9]