软商品日报：溢价回落-20260113

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - The USDA report on cotton is slightly bullish, but the price increase is restricted due to ineffective upward - to - downward price transmission. Cotton is expected to fluctuate in the short term with limited downside space [1]. - The rural agriculture department's prediction on China's sugar supply - demand remains unchanged. Domestic sugar supply is sufficient, and the international sugar supply is also loose. The short - term upward momentum of sugar is weak, but the double - festival stocking may boost demand [2]. 3) Summary by Related Content Cotton - The 2025/26 January US cotton supply - demand balance shows a decline in production and ending stocks compared to December. Beginning stocks, consumption, exports, and imports remain unchanged. Production drops by over 2% to 13.9 million bales due to lower delta region output. The national average yield falls 8% to 856 pounds per acre. Ending stocks decrease 7% to 4.2 million bales, accounting for 30.4% of consumption. The estimated farm - average price is raised to 61 cents per pound [1]. - The USDA cotton report is slightly bullish, but price increase space is restricted. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term with support near the 20 - day line [1]. Sugar - The rural agriculture department's prediction on 2025/26 China's sugar supply - demand is consistent with last month. Northern beet - sugar production nears completion, and southern cane - sugar production is at its peak. New domestic sugar is on the market, and supply is sufficient with downstream merchants purchasing as needed. As of December, Guangxi's cumulative sugar production is 1.94 million tons with a sales rate of 45.56%, down 13.76 percentage points year - on - year; Yunnan's is 390,000 tons with a sales rate of 71.72%, down 9.98 percentage points year - on - year. Weather impact on sugar - cane sugar content needs attention [2]. - Internationally, India and Thailand have strong production increase expectations, and Brazil's sugar production remains high, resulting in a loose international sugar supply - demand situation. The basis between sugar futures and spot has been mostly repaired, and the valuation of far - month contracts has also been adjusted. Near - month contracts face large supply pressure with weak short - term upward momentum. A large price difference between domestic and international markets may attract more imports, but double - festival stocking may boost demand, and investors can consider buying on dips [2].