原油日报：原油震荡上行-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The report expects crude oil prices to fluctuate. The current situation shows an oversupply pattern in the crude oil market, but geopolitical factors such as the situation in Iran and the Russia-Ukraine negotiation progress may affect the supply and demand relationship and price trends [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 行情分析 - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026. The next meeting will be held on February 1 [1]. - In the off - season of crude oil demand, EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, but refined oil inventories increased more than expected, and the overall oil inventories continued to rise. U.S. crude oil production slightly decreased but remained near the historical high, and the number of U.S. rigs continued to rise slightly [1]. - Trump warned that if India does not limit its purchase of Russian oil as required by the U.S., the U.S. may increase tariffs on Indian products. Reliance Industries stated that its Jamnagar refinery has not received any Russian oil in the past three weeks and does not expect Russian crude oil deliveries in January [1]. - The crack spreads of refined oil in Europe and the U.S. are low. The U.S. ISM manufacturing index in December 2025 slightly decreased and has been below 50 for 10 consecutive months. The market is still worried about crude oil demand. Exports from the Middle East have increased, and global floating crude oil inventories are high, resulting in an oversupply situation [1]. - Trump said that Venezuela will transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, and the U.S. Energy Secretary declared that the U.S. will "indefinitely" control Venezuelan oil sales. Currently, Venezuela has little impact on global crude oil supply and demand [1]. - The unrest in Iran has continued to escalate, with the domestic Internet cut off. Trump threatened to interfere in Iran again, and the U.S. State Department asked U.S. citizens to leave Iran immediately. Trump also stated that any country doing business with Iran will be subject to a 25% tariff in any business activities with the U.S. [1]. - The Russia - Ukraine negotiation has not made further progress. Trump passed a sanctions bill against Russia, authorizing the imposition of tariffs on countries importing Russian oil [1]. 期现行情 - The main crude oil futures contract 2602 rose 2.27% to 445.6 yuan/ton today, with a minimum price of 432.0 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 445.7 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 2495 to 22556 lots [2]. 基本面跟踪 - The EIA monthly report raised the U.S. crude oil production in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 13.86 million barrels per day, raised the non - OPEC+ oil supply by 50,000 barrels per day, and raised the global crude oil production by 300,000 barrels per day. It also lowered the global oil demand in the fourth quarter of 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day [3]. - The IEA raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 40,000 barrels per day to 830,000 barrels per day, and raised the growth rate in 2026 by 90,000 barrels per day to 860,000 barrels per day. It also lowered the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 100,000 barrels per day and in 2026 by 20,000 barrels per day [3]. - OPEC maintained the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3]. - On the evening of January 7, EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories for the week ending January 2 decreased by 3.832 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 447,000 barrels, and were 4.08% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories increased by 7.702 million barrels, and refined oil inventories increased by 5.594 million barrels [3]. - OPEC's latest monthly report showed that OPEC's crude oil production in October 2025 was lowered by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its production in November decreased by 1,000 barrels per day to 28.48 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production reduction in Iraq and Iran [4]. - OPEC+ crude oil production in November increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared with October to 43.06 million barrels per day [4]. - U.S. crude oil production for the week ending January 2 decreased by 16,000 barrels per day to 13.811 million barrels per day, remaining near the historical high [4]. - The four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products decreased to 19.871 million barrels per day, 1.68% lower than the same period last year. Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 4.59% to 8.17 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 8.688 million barrels per day, 0.49% higher than the same period last year. Diesel weekly demand decreased by 5.45% to 3.195 million barrels per day, and the four - week average demand was 3.629 million barrels per day, 4.25% lower than the same period last year [4].