塑料日报：震荡运行-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The plastic supply has new capacity put into production, the recent plastic upward space is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to fall [1] - The plastic supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, and the macro - atmosphere is warm but has limited effect on plastic [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 13, the addition of maintenance devices such as the old full - density line 1 of Dushanzi Petrochemical changed little, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 85%, at a neutral level [1][4] - As of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a low level in recent years [1][4] - The inventory accumulation amplitude during the New Year's Day this year is not large, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1][4] - The crude oil price has a small rebound. The plastic has new capacity put into production recently, and the operating rate is higher than that of PP. The agricultural film peak season is gradually ending, and the L - PP spread is expected to fall [1] - China's manufacturing PMI and other indexes in December 2025 rose to the expansion range, and the macro - atmosphere is warm, but the plastic supply - demand pattern improvement is limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2605 contract reduced positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6673 yuan/ton, the highest was 6787 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6766 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.42%. The position decreased by 13392 lots to 477388 lots [2] Spot - The PE spot market mostly rose, with the price change range between - 0 and + 200 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6700 - 6820 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8950 - 9360 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6830 - 8440 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 13, the addition of maintenance devices such as the old full - density line 1 of Dushanzi Petrochemical changed little, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 85%, at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week of January 9, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 0.06 percentage points to 41.21% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a low level in recent years [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early inventory on Tuesday decreased by 10000 tons to 590000 tons week - on - week, 10000 tons higher than the same period last year. The current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to 64 US dollars/barrel, and the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 725 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 745 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]