纯碱日报：短期震荡-20260113

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "short - term shock" [1] 2) Core View of the Report - Currently, the fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved, with policy expectations having a significant impact. However, due to the continuous release of new production capacity, the market supply - demand outlook is weakening, and short - term prices may fluctuate. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment [4] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures Market: The main soda ash contract opened high and moved low, weakening within the day. The 120 - minute Bollinger Band showed a narrowing signal for short - term shocks. The intraday pressure was near the 60 - day moving average, and the support was near the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 210,000 lots compared to the previous day, while the open interest increased by 12,386 lots. The intraday high was 1242, the low was 1209, and the closing price was 1212, down 16 yuan/ton or 1.3% from the previous settlement price [1] - Spot Market: It was stable with fluctuations. Enterprise equipment was operating stably, and supply remained at a high level. New orders at new prices were average, mostly based on previous orders. Downstream trading was tepid, with low purchasing enthusiasm and resistance to high prices, mainly maintaining low - price procurement [1] - Basis: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China was 1250, and the basis was 38 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of January 8, domestic soda ash production was 753,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,500 tons or 8.11%. Light soda ash production was 349,100 tons, a week - on - week increase of 23,000 tons; heavy soda ash production was 404,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 33,500 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 84.39%, up 4.43% from the previous week. The ammonia - soda capacity utilization rate was 90.41%, up 11.20% week - on - week; the co - production capacity utilization rate was 74.11%, up 1.33% week - on - week. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 88.15%, up 2.24% week - on - week [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5647 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons or 0.51% from last Thursday. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 844,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,500 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 720,700 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 15,500 tons [2] - Demand: This week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 589,200 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15%. Downstream demand for soda ash was average, mainly consuming inventory and purchasing at low prices. Light soda ash was relatively stable, but at the end of last month, some glass production lines were shut down for cold repair, weakening the rigid demand for heavy soda ash [2] - Profit: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production method was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda method was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%. During the week, the price of raw - material rock salt was stable, while the price of steam coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - The current high capacity utilization rate of soda ash, along with the gradual release of new production capacity, has led to a continuous increase in overall output. One glass production line started production today, slowing down the cold - repair rhythm and slightly recovering rigid demand. Additionally, continuous losses and positive macro - sentiment provide some short - term support. Overall, the fundamentals of soda ash have slightly improved, but the continuous release of new production capacity weakens the market supply - demand outlook, and short - term prices may fluctuate [4]