USDA 棉花月度报告解读：棉花：美棉产量下调，报告偏多-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report The USDA's January cotton monthly report is bullish as the US cotton production is下调 more than expected, the global production is slightly adjusted, the global cotton demand increases slightly, and the ending stocks are下调. Although the global cotton supply may still be relatively loose, the surplus pressure has decreased, and the low price of US cotton may drive a slight rebound. The planting situation in the Northern Hemisphere should be monitored in the medium term [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - Production: The global production in the 2025/26 season is下调 by 77,000 tons. India's production is下调 by 108,000 tons, the US production is下调 by 77,000 tons, and Turkey's production is下调 by 44,000 tons, while China's production is上调 by 218,000 tons. The US yield per acre is下调 from 929 pounds to 856 pounds, the harvested area is上调 from 7.37 million acres to 7.8 million acres, and the planted area is slightly下调 from 9.3 million acres to 9.28 million acres [1]. - Consumption: The global consumption in the 2025/26 season is环比上调 by 68,000 tons, with China's consumption上调 by 109,000 tons to 8.491 million tons, and the overall global consumption remains stable [1]. - Imports: The global cotton imports in the 2025/26 season are环比上调 by 5,000 tons. Turkey's imports are下调 by 21,000 tons, and India's imports are上调 by 43,000 tons, while the other major importing countries remain unchanged [1]. - Exports: The global exports are上调 by 6,000 tons. Australia's exports are上调 by 44,000 tons, and India's exports are上调 by 22,000 tons [1]. - Ending Stocks: The global ending stocks in the 2025/26 season are环比下调 by 324,000 tons. China's ending stocks are上调 by 109,000 tons, India's ending stocks are下调 by 261,000 tons, the US ending stocks are下调 by 66,000 tons, and Australia's ending stocks are下调 by 43,000 tons [2]. Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Production: The total global production in the 2025/26 - January is 26.004 million tons, a decrease of 77,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 208,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - Consumption: The total global consumption in the 2025/26 - January is 25.891 million tons, an increase of 68,000 tons compared to the previous month and a decrease of 5,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - Imports: The total global imports in the 2025/26 - January are 9.527 million tons, an increase of 5,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 157,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - Exports: The total global exports in the 2025/26 - January are 9.53 million tons, an increase of 6,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 300,000 tons compared to the previous year [3]. - Ending Stocks: The total global ending stocks in the 2025/26 - January are 16.217 million tons, a decrease of 324,000 tons compared to the previous month and an increase of 157,000 tons compared to the previous year [3].