银行理财 2025 年回顾与 2026 年展望：9个热点问题看理财新叙事

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector [5] Core Insights - In 2025, the total market wealth management scale is expected to grow by approximately 3.5 trillion to reach 33-34 trillion, driven by factors such as deposit disintermediation, the release of valuation adjustments, and the expansion of products with embedded rights [1][14][15] - For 2026, the growth of wealth management is projected to continue, albeit with potential fluctuations in the growth pace due to various market dynamics [21] Summary by Sections Wealth Management Scale - Deposit disintermediation remains a crucial support for wealth management scale growth, with a neutral estimate of an increase of around 3 trillion for 2026, leading to an expected year-end scale of 36-37 trillion [1][21] - The maturity of deposits over 2 years for listed banks is estimated at approximately 41 trillion, with a year-on-year increase of about 9 trillion, which may intensify the competition between deposits and wealth management products [24][21] Product Layout - The report highlights a focus on maintaining a stable base with low volatility while actively expanding products with embedded rights, predicting that wealth management could bring in 150-300 billion in equity market allocations in 2026 [2][61] - The "fixed income plus" wealth management products are expected to grow by 1.5 trillion in 2025, with a year-end scale increase of nearly 16% [2][52] Asset Allocation - There is a rigid allocation towards deposit-type assets, with a shift towards multi-asset strategies to enhance returns, while the potential for a shift in allocation from deposits to bond-type assets is being monitored [3][60] - The report anticipates a strong demand for short-term bond allocations, while the capacity for mid to long-term allocations may decrease, leading to a steepening yield curve [3][60] Wealth Management Operations - The performance benchmarks for wealth management are expected to face downward pressure, with potential liquidity concerns being minimal due to ample liquidity reserves and regulatory support [4][32] - The competitive landscape is evolving, with wealth management companies increasing their market share, driven by channel factors and the need for enhanced customer reach [4][5] Competitive Landscape - The report notes that the market share of wealth management companies is likely to continue rising, with distribution channels expanding into rural areas and non-licensed institutions gradually exiting the market [4][5]