美农报告利空豆类油脂震荡偏强：豆类日报-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On January 13, the futures prices of beans and oils showed a divergent trend. The prices of soybean No.1, soybean No.2, soybean meal, and rapeseed meal were oscillating weakly, while the prices of oils were oscillating strongly. The soybean meal market dropped significantly due to the unexpectedly bearish US Department of Agriculture supply - demand report. The short - term soybean meal futures price will run weakly in an oscillating manner. The oil market showed a trend of rising and then falling. The short - term palm oil market sentiment has improved, with the futures price oscillating strongly. The futures prices of soybean oil and rapeseed oil may enter a high - level oscillating consolidation phase [3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - USDA January Supply - Demand Report: In the 2025/26 season, US soybean production and inventory were increased, and exports were decreased. Brazilian soybean production was raised by 3 million tons. US soybean production was unexpectedly increased, exports were reduced by 60 million bushels, and inventory was increased by 60 million bushels. The estimated production was 4.262 billion bushels, with the harvest area increased to 80.4 million acres. The average yield per acre remained at 53.0 bushels. Soybean crushing was increased to 2.57 billion bushels, exports were reduced to 1.575 billion bushels, and the ending inventory was estimated to be 350 million bushels. The annual farm average price was lowered to $10.20 per bushel [7] - Brazilian Weather: A water vapor corridor is extending from northern to southeastern Brazil. Rainfall is expected to be unstable, especially in some areas. The weather in Mato Grosso is currently favorable for harvesting but will change. A new weather system will form in northern Argentina and bring rainfall to Brazil [8] - US Soybean Export Inspection: The US soybean export inspection volume increased by 55% week - on - week and 13% year - on - year. As of January 8, 2026, the inspection volume was 1,529,707 tons. The total export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season reached 17,934,546 tons, accounting for 41.8% of the annual export target [9][10] - US Quarterly Inventory Report: As of December 1, 2025, the inventories of US soybeans, corn, wheat, Durum wheat, barley, and oats were all higher than the previous year. The implied consumption from September to November 2025 showed different trends for different crops [11] - Brazilian Soybean Harvest: As of January 8, 2025/26, the Brazilian soybean harvest progress was 0.6%, exceeding last year's 0.3%. The harvest in Mato Grosso was the most active. The estimated production for the 2025/26 season is a record 180.4 million tons [12] - Spot Market Prices: The prices of soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil in different regions showed different changes compared to the previous day [12][14] - Oil Mill Pressing Profits: The pressing profits of oil mills in different locations and using different types of soybeans (domestic and imported) varied [15] 2. Related Charts - The content provides charts including soybean port inventory, soybean盘面 pressing profit, soybean oil port inventory, palm oil port inventory, soybean oil basis, and palm oil basis, but specific data and analysis are not elaborated in the text [16][18][19][21][22][25]