Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily decline of 0%, and the volume and open interest shrank. Currently, rebar supply is rising while demand remains weak, with fundamental contradictions starting to accumulate. Steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and the short - term trend will continue to oscillate. Attention should be paid to steel mill production [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil oscillated with a daily decline of 0.09%, with volume shrinking and open interest increasing. At present, the fundamentals of hot - rolled coils are weak under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and prices continue to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the warm commodity sentiment, and the trend is expected to maintain an oscillating state. Attention should be paid to demand performance [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated at a high level with a daily decline of 0.24%, with volume increasing and open interest shrinking. Currently, thanks to the warm commodity sentiment, iron ore prices are at a high level. However, ore supply is high while demand improvement is limited, and the fundamentals have not improved substantially. The upward driving force is not strong, and the subsequent trend will maintain a high - level oscillating state. Attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized in the 18th manufacturing enterprise symposium on January 13 that in 2026, it is necessary to stabilize the effective investment in the manufacturing industry, consolidate the steady - improving trend of the industrial economy, implement the new round of the ten - key - industry steady - growth work plan, and stimulate the vitality of private investment [7]. - According to the Mysteel weekly report, from January 5th to January 11th, the total transaction (signing) area of new commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.1 million square meters, a month - on - month decrease of 53% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.4%. The total transaction (signing) area of second - hand housing in 10 key cities was 1.9568 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 59% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.8%. Only Qingdao saw a month - on - month increase in new housing area, while 9 other cities saw a decline, with Wuhan having the largest decline of 83.1% [8]. - Sichuan encourages industries such as steel, electrolytic aluminum, and copper smelting to increase the use ratio of recycled materials such as scrap steel, and guides cement enterprises to use non - carbonate raw materials to produce cement [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,270, 3,210, and 3,342 respectively, with changes of - 10, 10, and 0. The spot prices of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,280, 3,190, and 3,308 respectively, with changes of 0, 0, and - 3. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,970 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,110 with a change of 20. The coil - rebar spread was 10, and the rebar - scrap spread was 1,160 with a change of - 30 [9]. - The price of PB powder at Shandong ports was 822 with a change of - 3, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 782 with no change, the Australian and Brazilian freight rates were 7.56 and 20.83 respectively with changes of - 0.26 and - 0.16, the SGX swap (current month) was 108.89 with a change of 0.55, and the Platts Index (CFR) was 109.25 with a change of 0.75 [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 3,158 with a change of 0.00%, the highest price was 3,173, the lowest price was 3,150, the trading volume was 837,879 with a decrease of 119,553, and the open interest was 1,687,943 with a decrease of 38,760 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,303 with a decline of 0.09%, the highest price was 3,323, the lowest price was 3,296, the trading volume was 404,061 with a decrease of 4,668, and the open interest was 1,440,250 with an increase of 12,752 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 819.5 with a decline of 0.24%, the highest price was 828.0, the lowest price was 814.0, the trading volume was 311,621 with an increase of 39,577, and the open interest was 653,307 with a decrease of 1,527 [11]. 4. Related Charts - The content mainly includes various charts related to steel and iron ore inventory, such as weekly changes in rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory, total inventory (steel mill + social inventory), national 45 - port iron ore inventory, 247 - steel - mill iron ore inventory, domestic mine iron concentrate inventory, etc., as well as charts related to steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, and the profit - loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills [13][21][29]. 5. Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern has weakened. Supply is rising with the weekly output increasing by 28,200 tons, while demand is seasonally weak with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 254,800 tons. The fundamental contradictions are accumulating, and steel prices are under pressure during the off - season. The short - term trend will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to steel mill production [39]. - For hot - rolled coils, the supply - demand pattern has changed little. Supply continues to rise with the weekly output increasing by 10,000 tons and is at a relatively high level, and demand is weakening with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 24,300 tons. The fundamentals are weak, and prices are under pressure. The trend is expected to maintain an oscillating state, and attention should be paid to demand performance [39]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern is weak. Inventory is rising, and demand improvement is limited due to the poor profitability of steel mills and the off - season steel market. Supply is at a relatively high level with increasing port arrivals and stable miner shipments. The price is at a high level due to warm commodity sentiment, but the upward driving force is not strong, and the subsequent trend will maintain a high - level oscillating state. Attention should be paid to steel mill restocking [40].
钢材&铁矿石日报：预期现实博弈，钢矿延续震荡-20260113
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2026-01-13 13:34