螺纹热卷日报-20260113

Group 1: Market Information - Shanghai Zhongtian rebar price is 3270 yuan (-10), Beijing Jingye rebar price is 3170 yuan (-), Shanghai Angang hot-rolled coil price is 3290 yuan (+10), Tianjin Hegang hot-rolled coil price is 3190 yuan (-) [4] Group 2: Market Analysis - The steel futures market maintained a volatile trend today, with a slight increase in the morning and a correction in the afternoon. The volatility further decreased. The overall spot steel trading volume was generally weak, mainly driven by rigid demand at low prices, with less speculative and futures-spot trading [5] - Last week, the output of the five major steel products increased, and the molten iron output continued to rise due to the recovery of profit levels. The total steel inventory started to accumulate, marking an inflection point. However, the hot-rolled coil inventory continued to decline, with inventory shifting from factory warehouses to social warehouses. The rebar inventory accumulated overall [5] - Affected by seasonality, the apparent demand for building materials further weakened, and the funds available to downstream construction sites decreased. The demand for hot-rolled coils slightly declined, but there was a pre-holiday restocking demand in the manufacturing industry. Steel exports in January remained strong [5] - On the raw material side, the coal mine inventory decreased. Driven by market news, the commodity market recently experienced a significant increase, which led to a rise in steel prices. The structural shortage of PB fines has not been resolved, and the first quarter is also the traditional off-season for iron ore shipments. Steel mills have a rigid demand for restocking, providing cost support [5] - The continuous resumption of molten iron production has also limited the further upward space for steel prices. Affected by the increasing overseas macro risks, market sentiment is relatively strong. In the short term, steel prices will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend, but the upward space is limited. Continued attention should be paid to the impact of macro news on the market. Future attention should also be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [5] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Unilateral trading: Steel prices will maintain a volatile and slightly upward trend, but the upward space is limited, and the overall trend will follow macro sentiment [6] - Arbitrage trading: It is recommended to short the hot-rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position on the hot-rolled coil to rebar spread [6] - Options trading: It is recommended to wait and see [6] Group 4: Important Information - From January 5th to January 11th, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 1.1 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 53% and a year-on-year decrease of 41.4% [7] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held the 18th symposium for manufacturing enterprises. Representatives from 12 key industries and industry associations participated in the meeting. The meeting emphasized strengthening self-discipline, creating a healthy ecosystem, and contributing to the development of new industrialization and the construction of a manufacturing powerhouse [8][9]