玉米淀粉日报-20260113

Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US corn report significantly increased the production forecast, leading to a sharp decline in US corn prices. However, the global corn supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downside space for US corn prices. The import profit of foreign corn is rising, and the import price from Brazil in February is 2126 yuan. The domestic corn and starch markets have different trends, with corn showing regional differences and starch being affected by corn prices and inventory changes. The report suggests short - selling 03 corn and 03 starch, and adopting a short - term cumulative put option strategy for corn options, while remaining on the sidelines for arbitrage [4][6][7][8][9][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Data 3.1.1 Futures盘面 - C2601 closed at 2298, down 3 (-0.13%), with a trading volume of 0, a 100% decrease, and an open interest of 9,186, a 0.12% decrease - C2605 closed at 2277, down 2 (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 184,628, a 10.50% decrease, and an open interest of 621,422, a 2.87% increase - C2509 closed at 2291, down 6 (-0.26%), with a trading volume of 7,901, a 11.98% decrease, and an open interest of 53,279, a 1.06% increase - CS2601 closed at 2540, up 2 (0.08%), with a trading volume of 100, an 80% decrease, and an open interest of 2,400, unchanged - CS2605 closed at 2591, down 5 (-0.19%), with a trading volume of 14,970, a 17.23% increase, and an open interest of 53,742, a 7.87% increase - CS2509 closed at 2619, down 7 (-0.27%), with a trading volume of 230, a 44.44% decrease, and an open interest of 2,876, a 1.20% increase [2] 3.1.2 Spot and Basis - Corn: The prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, Zhucheng Xingmao, Shouguang, Jinzhou Port, Nantong Port, and Guangdong Port were 2150, 2180, 2304, 2276, 2340, 2420, and 2470 respectively, with price changes of 10, 0, 6, 10, 10, 0, and 10 respectively. The basis was -141, -111, 13, -15, 63, 129, and 179 respectively [2] - Starch: The prices of Longfeng, COFCO, Yihai (Heilongjiang), Yufeng, Jinyu, Zhucheng Xingmao, and Hengren Industry and Trade were 2730, 2700, 2700, 2860, 2800, 2880, and 2750 respectively, with price changes of 30, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, and 0 respectively. The basis was 139, 109, 109, 269, 209, 289, and 159 respectively [2] 3.1.3 Spreads - Corn inter - month spreads: C01 - C05 was 21, down 1; C05 - C09 was - 14, up 4; C09 - C01 was - 7, down 3 - Starch inter - month spreads: CS01 - CS05 was - 51, up 7; CS05 - CS09 was - 28, up 2; CS09 - CS01 was 79, down 9 - Cross - variety spreads: CS09 - C09 was 328, down 1; CS01 - C01 was 242, up 5; CS05 - C05 was 314, down 3 [2] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Corn - The US corn report led to a sharp decline in US corn prices, but the global supply pressure has weakened, limiting the downside. The import profit of foreign corn is rising, and the domestic northern port closing prices are rising. The northeast corn spot is strong, while the supply in North China is increasing, and the corn price is stable. The price difference between northeast and North China corn is narrowing. Wheat and corn are being auctioned, and wheat prices are stable. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the downstream feed enterprise inventory is increasing. The market is concerned about the seasonal selling pressure of northeast corn before the Spring Festival and the downstream inventory - building situation [4][6] 3.2.2 Starch - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants is increasing, and the Shandong corn spot is stable. The northeast starch spot is stable. The corn starch inventory has increased this week, with the manufacturer's inventory at 112.5 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons from last week, a monthly increase of 2.1%, and a year - on - year increase of 25.1%. The starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory - building. The by - product prices are strong, and the spot price difference between corn and starch is low. Due to the strong corn price, the starch spot is also strong, but enterprise profitability is declining. The 03 starch contract followed the market up and then down, and it is expected that the short - term rebound space for the 03 starch contract is limited [7] 3.3 Trading Strategies - Unilateral: 03 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Start short - selling 03 corn and continue to short - sell 03 starch - Arbitrage: Stay on the sidelines [9][10] 3.4 Corn Options - Option strategy: Adopt a short - term cumulative put option strategy and conduct rolling operations [11] 3.5 Relevant Attachments - The report includes six charts showing the northern port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [14][15][16][18][19]