铁合金日报-20260113

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On January 13th, ferroalloy futures prices declined overall. The silicon - iron (SF) main contract closed at 5682, down 0.28%, with a decrease of 3885 in positions; the manganese - silicon (SM) main contract closed at 5916, down 0.24%, with an increase of 3675 in positions [6]. - For silicon - iron, the spot price was stable on the 13th. The supply side may contract in the future due to the need for technological transformation in Shaanxi enterprises. The demand side has limited future blast - furnace resumption space. With strong cost support and supply contraction expectations, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [6]. - For manganese - silicon, on the 13th, manganese ore and manganese - silicon spot prices were moderately strong. The supply side is generally stable, and the demand side is supported by blast - furnace resumption and pre - Spring Festival restocking. Driven by cost, it is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term [6]. - For trading strategies, the unilateral strategy is to be volatile and bullish in the short term due to the expected improvement in supply - demand and cost push; the arbitrage strategy is to wait and see; the option strategy is to sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. Group 3: Summary Based on Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Futures Data: The SF main contract closed at 5682, down 16 for the day and 94 for the week, with a trading volume of 162,961 (down 38,469) and an open interest of 224,722 (down 3885). The SM main contract closed at 5916, down 14 for the day and 2 for the week, with a trading volume of 143,149 (down 1617) and an open interest of 260,989 (up 3675) [3]. - Spot Data: For silicon - iron, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Qinghai, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5450, 5420, 5350, 5750, and 5850 respectively, with different weekly changes. For manganese - silicon, the spot prices in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guangxi, Jiangsu, and Tianjin were 5750, 5650, 5850, 5820, and 5750 respectively, with different weekly changes [3]. - Basis/Spread Data: The basis and spread data of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon showed different daily and weekly changes. For example, the Inner Mongolia - main contract basis of silicon - iron was - 232, up 16 for the day and 184 for the week [3]. - Raw Material Data: For manganese ore in Tianjin, the prices of Australian lump, South African semi - carbonate, and Gabon lump had different daily and weekly changes. The prices of blue charcoal small materials in Shaanxi, Ningxia, and Inner Mongolia were stable [3]. Market Judgement - Trading Strategy: Unilateral: Volatile and bullish in the short term; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell out - of - the - money straddles [7]. - Important Information: On the 13th, the price quotes of manganese ore in Tianjin Port changed. A large steel group in Hebei increased its silicon - manganese procurement in January compared to December 2025 [8][9]. Relevant Attachments - The report includes various graphs such as the price trends of ferroalloy main contracts, the spread between SF and SM contracts, the monthly spreads of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, the basis of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon, the spot prices of silicon - manganese, the electricity prices of ferroalloys, the production costs and profits of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon [10][13][16]