银河期货油脂日报-20260113

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term, the price of edible oils will fluctuate. Palm oil can be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the edible oil market due to a lack of independent driving factors. For the trading of spreads and options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - Spot Price and Basis: The closing price of soybean oil 2605 is 7986 with a decline of 8. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang, Guangdong, and Tianjin are 8506, 8546, and 8376 respectively, with corresponding basis of 560, 520, and 390. The closing price of palm oil 2605 is 8778 with an increase of 54. Spot prices in Guangdong, Zhangjiagang, and Tianjin are 8748, 8768, and 8908 respectively, with corresponding basis of - 30, - 10, and 130. The closing price of rapeseed oil 2605 is 9017 with an increase of 37. Spot prices in Zhangjiagang and Guangxi are 9817 and 10017 respectively, with corresponding basis of 800 and 1000 [2] - Monthly Spread: The 5 - 9 monthly spread of soybean oil is 144 with an increase of 14, that of palm oil is 100 with a decline of 6, and that of rapeseed oil is 31 with an increase of 13 [2] - Cross - Variety Spread: For the 05 contract, the Y - P spread is - 792 with a decline of 62, the OI - Y spread is 1031, and the OI - P spread is 239 with a decline of 17. The oil - meal ratio is 2.89 with an increase of 0.03 [2] - Import Profit: The CNF price of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia for the 2 - month shipment is 1062.5, and the FOB price of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam for the 2 - month shipment is 1050, with a negative profit of - 1369 [2] - Weekly Commercial Inventory: As of the second week of 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 102.5 million tons, that of palm oil is 73.6 million tons, and that of rapeseed oil is 25.1 million tons [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: In December 2026, India's palm oil imports were 507,204 tons, lower than November's 632,341 tons; sunflower oil imports were 349,929 tons, higher than November's 142,953 tons; soybean oil imports were 505,112 tons, higher than November's 370,661 tons. Total vegetable oil imports were 1.38 million tons, higher than November's 1.18 million tons [4] - Domestic Market - Palm Oil: As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 73.6 million tons, a 0.30% increase from the previous week. The origin price was stable, and the import profit inversion narrowed. There were rumors of two near - month purchases. After - market news that Indonesia may not implement B50 this year led to a decline in the Malaysian market. The short - term market lacks a clear driving force, and the high - inventory situation will continue, with a slow de - stocking speed. The short - term price will fluctuate [4] - Domestic Market - Soybean Oil: The soybean oil price declined slightly. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume was 1.7658 million tons, with an operating rate of 48.58%. As of January 9, 2026, the national key - area soybean oil commercial inventory was 1.0251 million tons, a 5.17% decrease from the previous week. The inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period of history, and the basis is stable. The weekly trading volume increased. There are rumors of customs clearance delays. With a decrease in soybean arrivals, the soybean oil inventory may decline slightly, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the price will fluctuate at a low level [6] - Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed oil price increased slightly. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume in coastal areas was 0, and the inventory of rapeseed was exhausted. As of January 9, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 251,000 tons, a decrease of 22,000 tons from the previous week, at a relatively neutral level. The European rapeseed oil FOB price was stable at around $1050, and the import profit inversion widened to around - 1300. The domestic available rapeseed oil supply is tight, and traders are reluctant to sell at low prices. In the short term, rumors of state reserves release in the first quarter and the expectation of improved China - Canada relations restrict the upward space of near - month contracts, but the firm offer from COFCO and the time required for rapeseed purchases to arrive provide support for the price [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - Unilateral Trading: Short - term, edible oils will fluctuate. Palm oil can be traded with a high - selling and low - buying strategy, and soybean oil may follow the overall trend of the edible oil market [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Wait and see [11] 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides eight figures, including the spot basis of East China first - grade soybean oil, South China 24 - degree palm oil, East China third - grade rapeseed oil, and various monthly spreads and cross - variety spreads of different oils, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][22]