粕类日报：月度供需报告偏空，国内现货强势-20260113

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The monthly supply and demand report is bearish, but the domestic spot market is strong. The overall price of the international soybean market is under pressure due to the relatively loose supply - demand situation. The domestic soybean meal spot shows some support in the near - term, but the medium - to - long - term price pressure still exists. The rapeseed meal market is mainly affected by macro factors, with general demand and more supply - side changes [3][4][8]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a short - selling approach for single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see attitude for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [9]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Market Quotes - Futures and Spot Basis: For soybean meal, the 01 contract closed at 3154 with a rise of 30, and the spot basis in Tianjin increased by 10. For rapeseed meal, the 05 contract closed at 2314 with a decline of 16, and the spot basis in Guangdong decreased by 14. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal slightly decreased, and the monthly spread of soybean meal continued to be strong, while that of rapeseed meal changed little [3]. - Monthly Spread: The 15 - spread of soybean meal increased by 59, and the 15 - spread of rapeseed meal increased by 2616. The 59 - spread of soybean meal decreased by 2, and the 59 - spread of rapeseed meal remained unchanged. The 91 - spread of soybean meal decreased by 57, and the 91 - spread of rapeseed meal decreased by 2616 [3]. - Cross - Variety Futures Spread: The spread between soybean and rapeseed 01 decreased, and the oil - meal ratio 01 also decreased [3]. - Spot Spread: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal decreased by 19, the spread between rapeseed meal and sunflower meal decreased by 20, and the spread between soybean meal and sunflower meal decreased by 9 [3]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - International Market: The monthly supply and demand report did not boost the US soybean market. The soybean carry - over inventory was raised to 350 million bushels, higher than the market expectation. The quarterly grain inventory data was also bearish. The supply in South America is affected, with good growth of new crops in Brazil and increased exports of old crops. The old - crop production in Argentina is large, and the recent crushing and exports have increased [4]. - Domestic Market: The domestic spot market is in a relatively loose supply - demand state. The oil mill operating rate increased, the supply was sufficient, the提货 volume decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased slightly but remained high. The market transaction increased significantly, and the spot was less. The overall demand remained good, and the uncertainty of future supply supported the price. As of January 9, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 1.7658 million tons, the operating rate was 48.58%, the soybean inventory was 7.1312 million tons, an increase of 0.4% from last week and 17.96% year - on - year. The soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a decrease of 10.78% from last week and an increase of 72.68% year - on - year. The rapeseed meal demand has gradually weakened, the oil mill operation has basically stopped, the rapeseed supply is low, and the granular rapeseed meal inventory is still at a relatively high level [7]. 3.3 Logic Analysis - International Market: The downward pressure on US soybeans has significantly increased. The bearish reports and good yields in South American producing areas are expected to maintain the overall pressure. The short - term dry weather in Brazil has little impact on crop growth, and the harvest is expected to proceed smoothly. The supply - demand situation of the international soybean market is still relatively loose, and the price is expected to be under pressure [8]. - Domestic Market: The future soybean arrivals in China will gradually decrease, and there is still great uncertainty on the supply side. The spot market has shown some support recently, driving the near - term disk. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply is still in a relatively loose state, and the price pressure still exists. The recent rapeseed meal is mainly affected by macro factors, with general demand and more supply - side changes. After a large decline in the early stage, it has been stable recently, and the spread has stabilized after continuous expansion. If the rapeseed meal supply does not change much, the spread is expected to narrow as the soybean meal supply tightens [8]. 3.4 Trading Strategies - Single - side Trading: It is recommended to take a short - selling approach [9]. - Arbitrage: Adopt a wait - and - see attitude [9]. - Options: Use the strategy of selling wide straddles [9]. 3.5 Soybean Pressing Profit The soybean pressing profit varies by origin, shipping date, and contract. For example, the Brazilian 2 - month contract has a current disk pressing profit of 99.77 and a spot pressing profit of 228.77, with a profit change of 23.44 compared to yesterday [10].