宏观经济专题：建筑开工转暖

Group 1: Supply and Demand - Construction starts are warming up, with a seasonal recovery in some operating rates; residential construction is performing better than infrastructure[2] - In the first two weeks of 2026, the operating rates of asphalt plants and mills are higher than the same period in 2025[2] - Cement supply for infrastructure projects has a significant year-on-year decline, while residential cement usage is close to the levels of the same period in 2025[2] Group 2: Industrial Production - Chemical production remains strong, while automotive steel tires and coking show weaker performance[2] - In the first two weeks of 2026, the operating rate of PX remains at a historical high, while PTA's operating rate is at a historical median[21] Group 3: Demand Weakness - Construction demand remains weak, with rebar, wire rod, and building materials at historical low apparent demand levels[3] - Passenger car rolling sales continue to show negative growth year-on-year[3] - Major home appliance sales, both online and offline, remain weak, with indices showing significant declines compared to previous years[38] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Copper, aluminum, and gold prices have reached new historical highs in recent weeks[40] - Domestic industrial product prices are experiencing upward trends, driven by non-ferrous metals[43] Group 5: Real Estate Market - New housing transactions show a significant year-on-year decline, with average transaction area in 30 major cities down by 48% compared to 2024 and 2025[5] - Second-hand housing transaction volumes remain weak, with Beijing, Shanghai, and Shenzhen showing negative year-on-year changes of -39%, -17%, and -39% respectively[62] Group 6: Export Trends - Export growth is expected to slow, with models indicating a year-on-year increase of approximately 3.4% for the first 11 days of January[64]