鸡蛋日报-20260113

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The recent increase in the quantity of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month May contract can be considered for building long positions at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Information - The average price of eggs in the main production areas today is 3.39 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous trading day, and the average price in the main sales areas is 3.62 yuan/jin, up 0.09 yuan/jin. The mainstream egg prices across the country mostly continued to rise today [4]. - In December, the national inventory of laying hens was 1.344 billion, a decrease of 80 million from the previous month, an increase of 5% year - on - year, lower than expected. The monthly output of laying hen chicks in sample enterprises in December was about 39.59 million, with little change month - on - month and a 13.9% year - on - year decrease [5]. - In the week of December 18, the number of culled chickens in the main production areas was about 19.67 million, with little change from the previous week. The average culling age was 486 days, the same as the previous week [5]. - As of the week of December 18, the egg sales volume in representative sales areas was 7,023 tons, with little change from the previous week and at a low level over the years [5]. - As of December 18, the weekly average profit per jin of eggs was - 0.17 yuan/jin, a slight recovery from the previous week. On December 12, the expected profit of laying hen farming was - 11.65 yuan/feather, a decrease of 0.7 yuan/jin from the previous week [6]. - As of the week of December 18, the average weekly inventory in the production link was 1 day, slightly less than the previous week, and the average weekly inventory in the circulation link was 1.12 days, slightly more than the previous week [6]. - Today, the price of culled chickens across the country increased, with the average price in the main production areas at 4.33 yuan/jin, up 0.06 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [7]. Trading Logic - The recent increase in the quantity of culled chickens has alleviated the previous supply pressure. The short - term de - capacity speed is expected to be gentle. The near - month contracts are expected to be weak and volatile, while the far - month May contract can be considered for building long positions at low prices as the supply pressure eases [8]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term February contract is expected to fluctuate within a range. Consider building long positions in the far - month May contract at low prices [9]. - Arbitrage: It is recommended to wait and see [9]. - Options: It is recommended to wait and see [9].