Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - International sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, while domestic sugar prices will fluctuate within a range. One can consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is recommended [7][8][9]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Data Analysis - Futures Market: SR09 closed at 5,266, down 25 (-0.47%), with a trading volume of 20,168 (up 4309) and an open interest of 80,971 (up 2819); SR01 closed at 5,288, down 28 (-0.53%), with a trading volume of 170 (down 486) and an open interest of 7,951 (down 137); SR05 closed at 5,253, down 32 (-0.61%), with a trading volume of 221,246 (up 30716) and an open interest of 429,949 (down 1446) [3]. - Spot Market: The spot prices in Liuzhou, Kunming, Wuhan, Nanning, Bayuquan, Rizhao, and Xi'an were 5390, 5230, 5660, 5360, 5530, 5545, and 5810 respectively, with no change. The corresponding basis were 137, - 23, 407, 107, 277, 292, and 557 [3]. - Monthly Spread: SR05 - SR01 spread was - 35 (down 4), SR09 - SR05 spread was 13 (up 7), and SR09 - SR01 spread was - 22 (up 3) [3]. - Import Profit: For Brazilian imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.06, and a freight of 31.75, the in - quota price was 3988, the out - of - quota price was 5065, the spread with Liuzhou was 325, the spread with Rizhao was 480, and the spread with the futures market was 223. For Thai imports, with an ICE main contract price of 14.77, a premium of 0.89, and a freight of 18.00, the in - quota price was 4038, the out - of - quota price was 5130, the spread with Liuzhou was 260, the spread with Rizhao was 415, and the spread with the futures market was 158 [3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - Important Information: Brazil exported 740,467.97 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of January, with a daily average export of 123,411.33 tons, a 32% increase compared to the daily average export in January of the previous year. The total export in January of the previous year was 2,062,261.69 tons. The USDA estimated that the total sugar production in the US in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season would be 9.381 million short tons, including 5.102 million short tons of beet sugar and 4.279 million short tons of cane sugar, and the sugar inventory/consumption ratio was estimated to be 15.8%. In Xinjiang, compared with 2024, the 2025 beet showed characteristics of a slight increase in yield per mu (0.23%), an increase in cost (2.77%), a decrease in selling price (-10.57%), and a decrease in income. The net profit per mu decreased by 43.70%, and the cash income per mu decreased by 30.76% [5][6]. - Logical Analysis: Internationally, as Brazilian sugarcane is expected to gradually enter the harvest season, the supply pressure of Brazilian sugar will gradually ease, and the market focus has shifted to the Northern Hemisphere. Most sugar production in the Northern Hemisphere is in an increasing cycle. India's double - week production is high, and the increase may exceed expectations, which has a negative impact on international sugar prices. However, as sugar prices have fallen to a low level and commodities are generally strong, US sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term. Domestically, the processing cost of white sugar is high, with most sugar mills in Guangxi having a cost of over 5400 yuan/ton. Recently, the US sugar on the external market shows signs of bottom - building, and the out - of - quota cost of importing Brazilian sugar is between 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton, which provides some support to the white sugar price. However, considering that China is in the peak sugar - pressing season and there is still some sales pressure, and there is an expected increase in global sugar production in the 2025/26 season, white sugar is expected to face significant pressure near the upper oscillation platform. In the short - term, the price is expected to oscillate [7]. - Trading Strategy: For unilateral trading, international sugar prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom in the short - term, and domestic white sugar prices will fluctuate within a range, so one can consider low - buying and high - selling within the range. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see, and for options, selling put options is recommended [8][9]. 3.3 Related Drawings The report includes multiple charts such as monthly inventory and production in Guangxi and Yunnan, Liuzhou white sugar spot price, Liuzhou - Kunming sugar spot spread, white sugar basis, and futures spreads, which visually present the changes in sugar - related data over time [10][11][15] etc.
白糖日报-20260113
Yin He Qi Huo·2026-01-13 15:02