棉花、棉纱日报-20260113

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the cotton market remain strong due to supportive factors such as the expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang, fast sales progress, improved Sino - US relations, and expansion expectations of textile mills in Xinjiang. However, the cotton price has recently experienced a significant correction, and it is necessary to observe whether it can break through the 20 - day line. The short - term trend of US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton may have a short - term correction risk [4][5][6] - The overall price of domestic pure - cotton yarn remains stable, but the actual transaction center has moved down slightly, and the market trading atmosphere is still weak. The开机 rate of spinning mills in the inland region has declined, while that in Xinjiang remains high. The downstream fabric mills have limited new orders, high inventory, and low acceptance of high - priced yarn, and the market trading activity is further suppressed by the approaching Spring Festival [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - Futures Market: For cotton futures contracts (CF01, CF05, CF09), prices increased, with CF05 having the largest increase of 135. For yarn futures contracts (CY01, CY05, CY09), prices also showed an upward trend, except for CY01 which remained unchanged. The trading volume of most contracts decreased, and the open interest of some contracts changed [2] - Spot Market: The price of CCIndex3128B decreased by 147 yuan/ton, while the price of Cot A remained at 74.45 cents/pound. The price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70, and other spot prices remained mostly stable. In terms of spreads, there were changes in cotton and yarn inter - period spreads and cross - variety spreads [2] Market News and Views - Cotton Market News: According to USDA data, the global cotton production in 25/26 is 26 million tons, a decrease of 80,000 tons from last month; total demand increased by 70,000 tons to 25.89 million tons; and the ending inventory decreased by 320,000 tons to 16.22 million tons. As of January 10, the cotton planting progress in Brazil in 2025/26 was 31.9%, slower than the same period last year and the three - year average. As of January 9, 2026, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton and Pima cotton accounted for 89.2% of the estimated annual production, slower than the same period last year [4] - Trading Logic: The expected reduction in cotton planting area in Xinjiang has been gradually confirmed, and the sales progress is fast. With improved Sino - US relations and expansion expectations of textile mills in Xinjiang, the cotton fundamentals are strong. However, the price has recently corrected, and it is necessary to observe the 20 - day line [5] - Trading Strategy: For cotton, it is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach as the short - term trend of US cotton is expected to be range - bound, and Zhengzhou cotton may have a short - term correction risk. For arbitrage and options, a wait - and - see approach is also recommended [6][7] - Cotton Yarn Industry News: The overall price of domestic pure - cotton yarn remains stable, but the transaction is weak. The开机 rate of inland spinning mills has declined, while that in Xinjiang remains high. Downstream fabric mills have limited new orders, high inventory, and low acceptance of high - priced yarn. The cotton fabric market has weak trading, and most weavers expect to have an early holiday and are pessimistic about the market [8] Options - Option Data: Information such as the closing price, price change rate, implied volatility, and other parameters of cotton option contracts is provided. The 10 - day historical volatility of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day. The trading volume of both call and put options decreased [10][11] - Option Strategy: A wait - and - see approach is recommended [12] Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including the price spread between domestic and foreign cotton under 1% tariff, cotton basis in January, May, and September, the spread between yarn and cotton contracts, and the inter - period spread of cotton contracts [14][17][21]