聚酯产业链期货周报-20260113

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PX market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with the PTA 3 and 5 contract positive spread in the arbitrage strategy [8] - The MEG market is expected to be volatile and slightly weaker, with a strategy of selling call options [8] - The PF and PR markets are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a positive spread strategy for PF and a wait - and - see strategy for PR in the arbitrage aspect [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - PX&PTA: An 820,000 - ton PX unit in the Middle East will undergo a 40 - 50 - day maintenance in January. Zhejiang Petrochemical's PX is expected to reduce its load by about 10%. PX profits remain good, and the start - up rate is high. The PTA start - up rate changes little, downstream polyester production cuts increase, and the price upward drive weakens. The trading strategy is a single - sided long - term bullish view, a positive spread for the 3 and 5 contracts in arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [8] - MEG: Hainan Refining and Fulei are operating at reduced loads. The 500,000 - ton unit of Fude Energy is expected to restart at the end of January. The import volume of ethylene glycol is expected to decline, and downstream polyester production cuts increase. The trading strategy is a single - sided bearish view, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and selling call options [8] - PF: Some short - fiber plants plan to have maintenance from late January to early February. The processing margin has not improved significantly, and downstream sentiment is bearish. The trading strategy is a single - sided bullish view, a positive spread in arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [8] - PR: Some bottle - chip plants have maintenance plans. The short - term market price is expected to follow raw material costs. The trading strategy is a single - sided bullish view, a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage, and a wait - and - see approach for options [8] Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 2.1 Polyester - Production and Sales: The overall production and sales of filament are weak, the production and sales of short - fiber are differentiated, and the transaction atmosphere of bottle - chips is average. The polyester start - up rate remains at 90.8% [13] - Terminal Demand: The terminal demand is weak. The comprehensive start - up rate of texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has decreased by 2% to 72%, and that of looms has decreased by 3% to 56%, while the dyeing start - up rate remains unchanged at 69% [15] - Filament: The production and sales of polyester filament are weak, the start - up rate has increased by 0.7% to 90.2%, and the average inventory days have increased by 1.3 days to 16.3 days [17] - Bottle - chips: The load of bottle - chips has increased by 0.8% to 74.8%, and the inventory has been reduced smoothly, but downstream customers are more on the sidelines. Multiple plants have maintenance plans [19] - Short - fiber: The production and sales of short - fiber are differentiated, the demand is weak, and the factory inventory has decreased by 0.3 days to 9.4 days. The processing fee is under pressure, and some plants plan to have Spring Festival maintenance [25] 2.2 PX - The PX market is under pressure due to the release of polyester maintenance plans. The spot market and floating prices have declined, and the paper - cargo spreads have changed [26] 2.3 PTA - The 1.25 - million - ton Ineos unit is operating at 70% load and plans to have maintenance in mid - month, with an estimated restart in early March. The PTA start - up rate changes little, and the price upward drive weakens. The load has increased by 0.1% to 78.2% [28] 2.4 MEG - The inventory in the main ports of East China is about 725,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous period. Ethylene glycol is expected to accumulate inventory in the first quarter. The spot basis and futures basis are at a discount [30] Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.1 PX - Price and Spread: Data on Brent crude oil futures, PX CFR China, PXN, and PX - MX are presented [36] - Disproportionation and Blending Price Spread & Profit: Data on US gasoline and crude oil inventories, toluene blending price spread, disproportionation profit, and xylene blending and PX production spread are presented [38] - Supply and Demand: Data on China and Asia's PX load and China's PTA load are presented [45] 3.2 PTA - Price and Profit: Data on PTA spot price, profit, load index, and polyester load are presented [48] 3.3 MEG - Price: Data on the East China ethylene glycol market price, Ordos 5500K coal price, East China methanol ex - tank price, and Northeast Asian ethylene price are presented [52] - Profit: Data on ethylene glycol oil - based profit, MTO profit, ethylene monomer production profit, and ethylene glycol coal - based profit are presented [54] 3.4 Polyester - Profit: Data on POY, DTY, FDY, bottle - chip, and short - fiber profits are presented [56] - Supply: Data on polyester load, bottle - chip load, filament load, short - fiber load, filament and short - fiber inventory days, and the start - up rates of looms and texturing machines in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are presented [58]