Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The oil price is expected to fluctuate and move upward as the market continues to price in geopolitical risks [1] - The absolute prices of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oils are likely to follow the oil price fluctuations, with high - sulfur fuel oil facing greater subsequent supply - demand pressure [2] - The asphalt market is expected to be in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectation", with prices expected to stabilize and strengthen [2] - Polyester prices are expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term due to the game between downstream negative feedback and rising oil prices [3] - Rubber prices may rebound due to a warming macro - expectation but could be pressured by inventory accumulation [3] - Methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the current tense situation in Iran potentially increasing its volatility [5] - Polyolefins are likely to oscillate at the bottom, with inventory expected to rise gradually from late January [5] - PVC prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the 05 contract showing a structure of weak reality and strong expectation [7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Crude Oil: On Monday, WTI February contract rose $0.38 to $59.50 per barrel (0.64% increase), Brent March contract rose $0.53 to $63.87 per barrel (0.84% increase), and SC2602 fell 0.3 yuan to 435.4 yuan per barrel (0.07% decrease). Market concerns about reduced Iranian exports offset the expected increase in Venezuelan supply. The price center of oil is expected to oscillate upward [1] - Fuel Oil: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2603 fell 1.32% to 2461 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2603 rose 0.93% to 3026 yuan per ton. The low - sulfur market will have sufficient supply in the short - term, while the high - sulfur market has some support. With Venezuelan heavy crude entering the market, it may be negative for relevant spreads. Short - term prices are expected to follow oil prices, and high - sulfur fuel oil is recommended to be shorted on rallies [2] - Asphalt: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 fell 0.25% to 3157 yuan per ton. Due to the Venezuelan situation, the expectation of tight processing raw materials strengthens cost - side support, and refinery supply decreases. The market is expected to be in a game between weak demand and strong cost expectation, with prices expected to stabilize and strengthen [2] - Polyester: TA605 rose 0.67% to 5142 yuan per ton, EG2605 rose 0.36% to 3880 yuan per ton, and the PX futures contract 603 rose 0.97% to 7308 yuan per ton. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were moderately good. Some devices had changes. The market is in a game between downstream negative feedback and rising oil prices, with prices expected to be strongly volatile in the short - term. The supply of ethylene glycol is still abundant, and prices are expected to oscillate widely [2][3] - Rubber: On Monday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 100 yuan to 16130 yuan per ton, and the NR contract rose 60 yuan to 13010 yuan per ton. In 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's natural rubber exports increased by 13.4% year - on - year. In the United States, tire imports from different countries had different changes. In December 2025, the retail sales of passenger cars decreased year - on - year. The rubber inventory in Qingdao increased. Rubber prices may rebound due to a warming macro - expectation but could be pressured by inventory accumulation [3][5] - Methanol: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2260 yuan per ton. In January, the arrival volume will decline significantly, and the MTO device load will also decrease. The port will face de - stocking pressure. Methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation, with the Iranian situation potentially increasing volatility [5] - Polyolefins: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6350 - 6500 yuan per ton. In January, the supply may decrease slightly, and demand is expected to recover in the first half of the month but weaken in the second half due to the Spring Festival. Polyolefins are likely to oscillate at the bottom [5][7] - Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC): On Monday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China had different adjustments. The supply is at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand is slowing, and the 05 contract has a large premium. The export policy change will put pressure on the far - month contract and support the near - month contract. PVC prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [7] Daily Data Monitoring - Crude Oil: The spot price of Oman crude was 426.82 yuan per barrel on January 12, the futures price of SC was 435.70 yuan per barrel, the basis was - 8.88 yuan per barrel, and the basis rate was - 2.04% [8] - Other Varieties: Similar data on spot prices, futures prices, basis, and basis rates are provided for various energy - chemical products such as liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, fuel oil, etc. [8] Market News - Market concerns about reduced Iranian exports during the anti - government protests offset the expected increase in Venezuelan supply. Iran is in communication with the US, and Trump is considering how to respond to the protests in Iran [10] - After the Venezuelan president was taken away by the US, Venezuela is expected to resume oil exports soon. Trump said Venezuela will transfer up to 50 million barrels of oil to the US, and oil companies are preparing for transportation [10] Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. from 2022 to 2026 [12][14][16] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts present the basis data for main contracts of different products, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over different time periods [29][34][35] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts display the spreads between different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09) for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [42][44][47] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: Charts show the spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil internal and external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][60][62] - 4.5 Production Profits: Charts illustrate the production profits of products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [66][68] Team Members Introduction - Zhong Meiyan: Deputy Director of Everbright Futures Research Institute. She has over a decade of experience in futures derivatives market research, has won multiple awards, and has served many listed companies and well - known domestic enterprises [71] - Du Bingqin: Research Director of Energy and Chemicals. She has a background in finance, has won many industry awards, and has in - depth research on the energy industry chain [72] - Di Yilin: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester. She has won several awards in the industry and is good at data analysis [73] - Peng Haibo: Analyst for methanol, propylene, etc. He has a background in energy - chemical spot - futures trading and has passed the CFA Level III exam [74]
光大期货能化商品日报（2026年1月13日）-20260113
Guang Da Qi Huo·2026-01-13 02:40