格林大华期货早盘提示：尿素-20260113

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for urea in the energy and chemical industry is "oscillating" [1] Group 2: Report's Core View - The price of the urea 2605 main contract rose by 4 yuan to 1,783 yuan/ton on Monday, while the spot price in the central China's mainstream area dropped by 10 yuan to 1,740 yuan/ton. The long - position increased by 5,161 lots to 233,900 lots, and the short - position increased by 6,011 lots to 254,000 lots [1] - The daily output of the urea industry is 202,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous working day and 279,000 tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate is 85.8%, a 4.5% increase from 81.2% in the same period last year [1] - The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1,022,200 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.29%. The sample inventory at urea ports is 140,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 32,000 tons [1] - The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 37.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.6%, and the operating rate of melamine is 58.5%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1% [1] - On January 2, India's NFL held a urea import tender. It received 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, including 1.59 million tons on the east coast and 2.02 million tons on the west coast. The lowest quotes were from Koch, with CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast [1] - In November 2025, urea imports were 197.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 135.71%, and the average import price was 1,107.41 dollars/ton, a month - on - month increase of 278.44%. Urea exports were 601,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 49.95%, and the average export price was 424.76 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50.80% [1] - The U.S. District of Columbia Federal Prosecutor's Office has launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding the renovation project of the Fed's Washington headquarters and whether he lied to Congress about the project's scope [1] - The urea enterprise inventory increased slightly last week. The lowest ex - factory price of mainstream urea factories over the weekend was 1,670 - 1,700 yuan/ton. The release of the Indian tender price is positive for the international market, but there is no clear news about the new domestic export quota. The short - term urea price will oscillate, and the reference range for the 05 contract is 1,720 - 1,820 yuan/ton [1] - The trading strategy is to sell put options [1]