金信期货日刊-20260114

Report Core View - The glass price is expected to be volatile in the short term and bullish in the medium term. Cold repair expectations provide short - term support, and the policy of ensuring the completion of real - estate projects after the Spring Festival may strengthen the upward trend. There is strong cost support at the bottom [3] Supply - demand Analysis Supply - The daily melting volume of glass has dropped below 150,000 tons, with an increase in cold repairs. However, industry losses have not led to large - scale capacity clearance, and the supply contraction is limited. Manufacturer inventories are higher than the same period last year, and the inventory accumulation pressure has not been alleviated [4] Demand - Real - estate completion and new construction are weak, and the rigid demand for float glass remains sluggish. The incremental demand for photovoltaic glass is limited, with only 8.6 days of deep - processing orders. There is a wait - and - see attitude in procurement, providing insufficient support [4] Technical and Capital Analysis Technology - The main 2605 contract of glass is in a shock state, with a weak basis, futures at a premium, and cautious capital sentiment. After the rebound, it has turned to a shock trend [4] Capital - The capital sentiment is cautious, and the rebound has ended, entering a shock phase [4] Key Variables - Pre - Spring Festival stockpiling may provide short - term support, but the post - festival demand off - season will increase inventory pressure. If glass cold repairs are implemented and real - estate stimulus measures are realized, the market may stabilize in the medium term [4] Trading Strategies - In the short term, treat the main contract as a wide - range shock. In the medium term, pay attention to the progress of cold repairs and inventory reduction. Do not bottom - fish without clear positive news. A positive arbitrage of going long on glass and short on soda ash can be carried out [5] Technical Analysis of Different Products Stock Index Futures - The market trend is transitioning from a one - way trend to a shock. Tomorrow morning, consider low - buying and high - selling [8] Gold - After a shock adjustment, gold has reached a new high. The operation strategy is to go long [13] Iron Ore - The market is in a bottom - seeking phase, and domestic demand support is weak. Technically, after a breakthrough, it is in a callback phase, and the low - buying idea remains unchanged [15] Glass - Technically, after a breakthrough, it is in a high - level consolidation phase, and the low - buying idea remains unchanged. The daily melting volume is continuously decreasing slightly, and inventory is also being reduced, mainly driven by policy - side stimulus and anti - involution policies for supply - side clearance [18][19] Methanol - On January 12, the US announced a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran and threatened military action, causing the US - Iran tension to escalate suddenly. Due to Iran's special geographical location and its important role in the Middle East, if the conflict with the US intensifies, it will lead to an increase in geopolitical tension and cause sharp fluctuations in oil prices. The short - term price trend is mainly shock - bullish [22] Pulp - The paper - making industry is currently enjoying triple benefits of "policy support + cost support + transformation and quality improvement". On the demand side, there are more than 2.888 million packaging enterprises, and the rigid demand is resilient. On the supply side, the price and volume of pulp are rising, optimizing the profit structure, and the advantages of leading enterprises are continuously strengthened. On the transformation side, policies promote the application of recycled materials and green transformation, opening up long - term growth space. The sector valuation is at a historical low, and with the expected release of policy dividends, the long - term allocation value is prominent. The futures market has shown a range - shock trend recently [25]