格林大华期货早盘提示：尿素-20260114

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the energy and chemical industry (urea) is "oscillating slightly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term urea price is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, with the 05 contract reference range between 1730 - 1830 yuan/ton. The recommended trading strategy is to sell put options [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Review - On Tuesday, the price of the main urea contract 2605 fell by 2 yuan to 1774 yuan/ton, and the spot price in the central China mainstream area was 1740 yuan/ton. Long - position holdings decreased by 1904 lots to 229,000 lots, and short - position holdings decreased by 6890 lots to 246,000 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The daily output of the urea industry is 202,000 tons, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous working day and 279,000 tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate is 85.8%, a 4.5% increase from 81.2% in the same period last year [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.0222 million tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week, a 0.29% month - on - month increase. The sample inventory at urea ports is 140,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons month - on - month [1] - Demand: The operating rate of compound fertilizers is 37.7%, a 1.6% month - on - month decrease, and the operating rate of melamine is 58.5%, a 3.1% month - on - month decrease [1] - Tender: On January 2, India's NFL held a urea import tender, receiving 26 suppliers with a total bid volume of 3.62 million tons, including 1.59 million tons on the east coast and 2.02 million tons on the west coast. The lowest quotes were from Koch, at CFR426.8 dollars/ton on the east coast and 424.8 dollars/ton on the west coast [1] - Import and Export: In November 2025, urea imports were 197.77 tons, a 135.71% month - on - month increase; the average import price was 1107.41 dollars/ton, a 278.44% month - on - month increase. In the same month, urea exports were 601,800 tons, a 49.95% month - on - month decrease; the average export price was 424.76 dollars/ton, a 50.80% month - on - month decrease [1] - Other News: According to CCTV News, on January 11, the US District of Columbia Federal Prosecutor's Office launched a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell regarding the renovation project of the Fed's Washington headquarters and whether he lied to Congress about the project scope [1] Market Logic - Last week, the inventory of urea enterprises increased slightly. The lowest ex - factory price of mainstream urea factories over the weekend was 1670 - 1700 yuan/ton. The release of the Indian tender price is positive for the international market, but there is no clear news about new domestic export quotas [1] Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy is to sell put options [1]